βLet's talk Monte Carlo. It is of the clay tournaments. It generally reads as the slowest. It's windy and it is slow. The ball is going to lose a ton of energy on the court surface. And the real sort of natural clay quarters, especially because there is less time for the less natural players to even make that adjustment and to get comfortable again on the dirt, the real natural clay quarters are usually going to do pretty well at this tournament.β
Elena Rybakina enters the World Number 1 conversation
βShe's in this number one conversation for the year, folks. I'm just telling you, she is firmly... She's not having a lot of off weeks. This consistency over a four or five month period is not something we've seen from Rybakina before. This feels different than what it's been before with her in as far as I can tell.β
Zverev's tactical adjustments could overcome Medvedev on clay
βZverev finally started serving Medvedev heavily wide in Paris. Sasha's wide serve, it's improved since then. He's worked on hitting a slower, more angular slice serve. And that very improvement that I've seen from Zverev this year is going to really play into this Medvedev head-to-head really nicely. Not to mention Clay. Look, I mean, Zverev's weight of shot, if he's actually hitting through the ball with confidence... these things in theory should help Zverev.β
Carlos Alcaraz faces wrist injury before Roland Garros
βA photo of him on Instagram at a restaurant circulated him taking a photo with the restaurant owner, we assume, also showing his right wrist in a removable cast of some kind. That's not an image you necessarily want to see a month before Roland Garros, is it? Feliciano Lopez actually has been sort of talking about the extent of the injury.β
The Balki fantasy tennis app is officially discontinued
βMidway through Indian Wells, the app stopped working and I have not heard from them. So this is where my information on what's going on is very limited. I don't know what happened, but I think it's safe to assume bulky is not going to be a thing. I hope everyone's okay over there. More likely than not, they probably just hatched the project and they haven't been communicative with me.β
Lorenzo Musetti returns as a top-four seed contender
βNumber four seed is Lorenzo Musetti. He is back. Hopefully healthy. He's the defending runner up, so there's a lot of ranking point implications on Musetti's run here. He's been so good at this event. Monte Carlo has been his best tournament throughout his career, and I do think the draw is really favorable for him, so I don't see him really getting picked off early.β
βThe talk here is already, this is going to be the next player, the next French player to win at Roland Garros. He beat Jean-Munar, five sets, drama, agita. And the way he has come back and recovered in one on service, beating Rubelv on Clay, he hits a huge ball, but he also gives himself some margin. If you were going to pick someone other than Sidor Alcaraz were going to win Roland Garros, I'd put him in my top five right now.β
βWe are the hardest sport in the world. And do you know when we look soft as baby shit? Is when we complain about getting hit in doubles and when we complain about someone hitting an underhand served, as if they've done something to personally offend us. Get out of here. There is nothing wrong with it. If you get caught not paying attention, that's on you.β
Zverevβs tactical wide serves favor him against Medvedev
βZverev finally started serving Medvedev heavily wide in Paris, and Zverev likes, he favors the tea serves. He likes to go tea. And against Medvedev, that's his, those are his better returns. Moving into the middle of the court, from that deep return position, you don't really get anywhere serving tea against Medvedev. You've got to go wide. You're not really going to ace him. You're not going to get a lot of service winners.β
βThe way that the Saudi Investment Fund has gone about putting money into tennis is the opposite of what they did with live. I feel like this is a correction on strategy based on what they did with live. They are not going against the tours. Everyone's swimming the same direction and they're trying to provide resources to that direction. They are not overpaying for assets like a Masters 1000, it's not by a multiple of 47 like they were for live golfers.β
Vondrousova faces suspension for missed doping test
βBasically, I mean, it sounds like, I don't want to diagnose this, you know, it's not like someone knocked on her door, she had a panic attack, she didn't realize that it was an anti-doping official, she missed the test. The ITIA essentially confirmed in broad strokes what had happened. Now we'll have to see. She's facing potentially a four-year ban, which is a lot for a missed test.β
Withdrawals have significantly weakened the 2026 field
βThis is a pretty significantly weakened field based on just withdrawal. So I'm going to go down the list right now. It's Djokovic, Fritz, Draper, Davidovic, Vakina, Feess, Munnar, Korda. And then a few Americans didn't sign up, Shelton, Tommy Paul, a couple of others. So there are plenty of players who you would normally expect to see in a Masters 1000 tournament that we will not be seeing.β
Jannik Sinner faces historical odds after Sunshine Double
βOnly one time in tennis history has a player won the Sunshine Double, and then also won Monte Carlo. And that was Djokovic in 2015. In fact, only one time has a player won Miami, and then won Monte Carlo. That was Djokovic in 2015, of course. So, it doesn't really happen. The Sunshine Double, those are two events that are appropriately grouped together. They're back to back.β
Alcaraz is projected to win Monte Carlo back-to-back
βUltimately, I do think Alcaraz will get back on track here and win Monte Carlo back to back. He has been so, so good on clay. The extra effectiveness on the forehand for Carlos, the options that he has creatively to sort of use his drop shot in these conditions... I think what we see players do against Carlos where sometimes they can just sort of suffocate him and kind of go all out offensive blitz. It's not going to be a thing in these conditions.β
Lorenzo Musetti remains a threat despite recent injury
βThe way I could justify it is, he was healthy enough to play Indian Wells. And that makes me think, unless there was a setback, a physical setback that I'm unaware of, that makes me think that he's had ample time to prepare and build up his fitness for Monte Carlo week. That he's actually been healthy for a couple of weeks now, which means he's been able to push it hard in the fitness and the training, and that he might be ready to go here.β
Alcaraz is projected to win the title back-to-back
βBut ultimately, I do think Alcaraz will get back on track here and win Monte Carlo back to back. He has been so, so good on clay. The extra effectiveness on the forehand for Carlos, the options that he has creatively to sort of use his drop shot in these conditions after pushing players back with the heavy spin and of course, the defense and the returning, which is just impenetrable in slow clay court conditions.β
Slow and windy conditions favor natural clay specialists
βLet's talk Monte Carlo. It is of the clay tournaments. It generally reads as the slowest. It's windy and it is slow. The ball is going to lose a ton of energy on the court surface. And the real sort of natural clay quarters, especially because there is less time for the less natural players to even make that adjustment and to get comfortable again on the dirt, the real natural clay quarters are usually going to do pretty well at this tournament.β
The tournament field is significantly weakened by withdrawals
βI also want to say before we go quarter by quarter, this is a pretty significantly weakened field based on just withdrawal. So I'm going to go down the list right now. It's Djokovic, Fritz, Draper, Davidovic, Vakina, Feess, Munnar, Korda. And then a few Americans didn't sign up, Shelton, Tommy Paul, a couple of others. So there are plenty of players who you would normally expect to see in a Masters 1000 tournament that we will not be seeing.β
Iva Jovic prioritizes match count over tournament level
βI really believe in match count and I really believe in getting confidence and getting better. I feel like I get so much better when I'm playing matches. If it's at a 35K or if it's at a Grand Slam, you're improving so much when you play matches. I'd rather take a semis or final at a lower level event than a second round at a higher event.β
ATP launched a formal fantasy tennis game platform
βWell, the ATP, they have made a move here. So for now, let's just do that. I have signed up, I have made a league. It's called Monday Match Analysis, the code to join the league. It's through the ATP website. So it's very official. It's not going to shut down and go belly up on us. The code will be in the description to join the Monday Match Analysis Fantasy League.β
Alejandro Tabilo is a dangerous unseeded dark horse
βI personally love it. My dark horse here is Alejandro Tabilo. My upset alert is Francis Tiafoe. My early popcorn is Alcaraz against the winner of Baez and Vavrenka. I promise I'm not being paid by Alejandro Tabilo. I'm not in his payroll. You have my word on that. But I cannot believe this, but it's three straight tournaments. He has been my dark horse.β
Alejandro Tabilo is the tournament's biggest dark horse
βI cannot believe this, but it's three straight tournaments he has been my dark horse. Indian Wells, Miami, now I'm looking at this again... to me, he's just easily the most dangerous unseated player in that particular section. More so than Griegsbord, who's struggling. More so than Monfils, who hasn't been able to really stack together wins in some time.β
Sinner faces historical difficulty winning after Miami
βOnly one time in tennis history has a player won the Sunshine Double, and then also won Monte Carlo. And that was Djokovic in 2015. It doesn't really happen. I'm never really going to back a player to win the Sunshine Double and do well at Monte Carlo. History tells us it's just not going to happen. Now Jannik can do it. He does a lot of things that are historical and mind-blowing, but it's not something that I'm going to bank on.β
Ben Shelton breaks American clay court title drought
βBen Shelton coming through. First American man since 2002 to win a 500 level event or better. Ben won on slow clay in Munich. I was really impressed. I like what I saw. On tour, this is a different win. This is like, oh, OK. This is a nice win. Like, we say statement too much, but this is at least kind of, may I have your attention for 12 seconds while you're eating lunch?β