βBitcoin is relatively cheap. People that loved Bitcoin at a $126,000 should be over the moon that we're now working at half price. The adoption hasn't stopped. The use case hasn't stopped. It's simply people are shortsighted and cannot handle when things don't go their way immediately. But this is where diamonds are forged. This is where the savages buy the dip and ride it to Valhalla.β
Bitcoin's 50% drop mirrors the previous bear market structure
βNow Bitcoin has had a hell of a ride to the downside. It has fallen by right around 50%, 51% to be precise, from that local peak at a 125 k. Now this situation is a tale of two cities.β
Wait for a third momentum wave bullish divergence before buying altcoins
βWhen to buy altcoins is a very delicate situation, and what I did is wait for a bullish divergence to happen on the momentum waves. Wait for that secondary wave to come down on the Bitcoin momentum and print that green dot showing me a general nasty tide to the upside.β
Aave TVL collapsed from $26B to $14B signaling DeFi stress
βDeFi giant, Aave, is bleeding TVL right now. When the fiasco with Keltau kicked off, AVE's TVL was sitting right at around $26,000,000,000. As of the time of this recording, we're at $14,000,000,000, a major major pullback for TVL in crypto's biggest lending protocol.β
A final flush could send Bitcoin back to $60K around late 2026
βNow if we look at our current situation, if we continue to tap this top end of the range, but then experience a major washout from some sort of defy capitulation, a 25% downside candle on the weekly would bring us right smack dab back to the $60,000 level. If that were to occur, that would cause the momentum wave that's currently moving up to swoop back to the downside. And if I'm comparing these two cycles to each other in a way that rhymes, this actually looks like it'd play out sometime around August or September 2026.β
Buy Bitcoin spot early but wait on altcoins until capitulation
βNow what I did last bear market was wait for the flush out. And, obviously, I was interested in buying Bitcoin through this entire range all the way from, you know, $25,000 down to 15. I was buying this entire range and don't regret it one bit. But the key here is that I was only interested in buying Bitcoin spot during that initial phase of the bear market.β