TRACK OIL

“President Trump said on Truth Social that dozens of planes took part in the operation to save the airmen after his F-15 fighter jet was hit over western Iran on Friday. The plane's pilot was quickly rescued, but the weapons officer, an Air Force colonel, had to go into hiding. Trump wrote, quote, This brave warrior was behind enemy lines in the treacherous mountains of Iran.”

“President Trump warned Iran today in a profane written post on social media that the US will attack key Iranian economic and infrastructure installations Tuesday. This, if no deal, is agreed to before then to keep open the key strait of Hormuz.”

“The president and Secretary Hegseth's rhetoric about no mercy, no quarter, death from above, the bombing of the Stone Ages, this kind of rhetoric is really dangerous because the likelihood of having downed pilots or others who are captured in a war like this is very high. And if you send the message that there's no quarter for the folks on the other side, that really encourages them to mistreat our folks.”

“The governor of Russia's northwestern Leningrad region said Ukrainian drones caused a fuel leak at the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk, the latest in a series of attacks that have slowed shipments of oil out of one of Russia's largest export hubs. Separately, authorities in the Nizhny Novgorod region to the east of Moscow reported Ukrainian drone strikes caused a massive fire at one of Russia's largest oil refineries.”

“The uptick in attacks comes as part of a wider Ukrainian effort to limit Russia's financial windfall from the US and Israel's decision to attack Iran. That war has brought soaring global energy prices and new customers for Russian oil and gas at a moment when Russia's economy had been struggling due to Western sanctions.”

“President Trump said on Truth Social that dozens of planes took part in the operation to save the airmen after his F-15 fighter jet was hit over western Iran on Friday. This brave warrior was behind enemy lines in the treacherous mountains of Iran. US rescue aircraft came under fire, but managed to reach the airmen and fly him out of the country.”

“Oil is a globally priced commodity. So even though we won't have a physical shortage here, because we've got Canada for heavy oil and we produce our own, the reality is that the price is global, and there's a real physical shortage. And so we don't escape that price impact, and that translates to what it costs a refiner to buy the crude and therefore what you pay for gasoline at the pump.”

“President Trump's executive order calls for his administration to create lists of adult US citizens in each state. It also calls for banning the US. Postal Service from delivering mail and ballots to anyone not on those lists. In their lawsuits, Democrats, voting rights groups, and almost two dozen states argue the Constitution gives state legislatures and Congress, not the president, the power to set rules for federal elections.”

“In Louisiana, police say a 57-year-old man has been charged with driving while impaired, and 18 counts of first-degree negligent injuring after he allegedly drove his car into a crowd at a parade yesterday afternoon. Police say Todd Landry's blood alcohol content was above the legal limit and that the crash at the Louisiana Lao New Year Festival didn't appear intentional.”

“The union posted an announcement on its website saying it had reached a tentative agreement after just a few weeks of negotiations, and weeks before the current contract expires. Details have yet to be revealed, but they are expected to include health benefit protections and new rules about the use of artificial intelligence.”

“Iran shot down those two planes over southwestern Iran. That's near the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway controlled by Iran through which much of the world's oil supply passes, fighting there has led to really a spike in energy prices. These are the first US planes downed in this war, and it could mark a turning point.”

“Hundreds of TSA workers resigned during the recent pay disruption, and experts say it can take months to hire and train replacements. That means staffing levels can vary by airport and even by the time of day, creating unpredictable wait times for travelers.”

“Canadian space agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen said he was struck by seeing the Earth wax and wane as they traveled through space and their view of the planet changed. It was a half Earth, then it was a full Earth, and then it was a no Earth.”

“The Prime Minister warned of extremely difficult times ahead as the Iran war continues to affect oil costs, noting that current prices are almost double the estimates indicated in Senegal's current budget. Several African countries have put in place measures to try and mitigate the impact of increased oil prices, including reducing fuel taxes and increasing subsidies.”

“President Trump's new proposed 2027 budget is calling for more passenger screening at airports to be done by private companies instead of TSA agents, as is the case now. Supporters of the idea say it would ensure screeners continue to get paid during a government shutdown and the White House says it will save the federal government money and that privately operated screeners are more efficient.”

“And silver is interesting because silver and Bitcoin are almost been perfectly correlated recently. I don't know if you noticed that. Silver is down 7% today. It's not surprising. It's become the Nuvo Industrial Medal. And so the fact that silver and Bitcoin are new, there's nothing Bitcoin centric about what's happening today.”

“Trump comes out and basically repeats his normal talking points. He more or less quoted truth social. And the markets are like, holy fuck, he doesn't know what's going to happen. Remember, everyone in the market, in the media market, is very negative on Trump. And so, it's just that's true. I mean, look, the mass media is against him, thinks that this is going to be a disaster.”

“The only things that we know for sure are that if oil goes up and he loses control of it, it goes towards 150 or 200, it will trigger a demand shock. It's already doing it. Airplanes flying, prices have just gone way up. I'm going on a trip in a couple of weeks, we were going to meet somebody and they said, no, forget it. The plane tickets are way too expensive to go. So you're going to see a big demand shock about that.”

“Volcker had debt to GDP floating between 25% and 32% or something. Some would argue we're at 130%, right? It's not the same environment. He could hike to 20% without crushing the economy. What he did was he starved it. People were borrowing to spend. He starved it. People, investment was off the charts. And unions were basically demanding crazy pay raises. And unions mattered a lot more back then than they do.”

“The market is pricing, this drags out for a little while. It ultimately gets resolved in a kind of negative-ish but not horrible way where oil starts flowing again. And geopolitics is between the US and China, and we don't care. And everyone just kind of retreats into their bubble of not much has changed, right? That's what the market is pricing. That's where the malaise is coming from.”

“Energy is really the driver here; if you have a supply shock in oil, that's something the Fed can't really control but has to react to.”

“They are in a position where they might have to look through some of this inflation, but that risks losing credibility with the markets.”

“We are seeing a regime shift in how liquidity is provisioned, and that usually means a lot more volatility for risk assets.”