TRACK OIL PRICES

“The US naval blockade on Iranian ports took effect April 13 at 10AM eastern after peace talks in Islamabad collapsed over the weekend according to NPR. The fact that this occurred, it seems to have been relatively well received by the market. That is to say this blockade didn't happen, the negotiations didn't fall apart, and we didn't immediately go straight back to hell in the market.”

“According to a study by the Associated Press, Major League Baseball's average salary has climbed 3.4% to a record of more than $5,300,000. The AP says the New York Mets topped spending at the season start for the fourth straight year with Mets' outfielder, Juan Soto, the highest paid player for the second consecutive season.”

“Israeli and Lebanese diplomats are now preparing to hold their first direct meeting between government officials in decades on Tuesday. Israel and Lebanon's ambassadors to The US are set to meet in Washington to discuss a ceasefire. But at a Hezbollah rally in downtown Beirut, Saturday, supporters filled the streets for blocks, waving flags and chanting against negotiations.”

“Rory McIlroy is donning a green jacket once again after winning the Masters Golf Tournament in Augusta, Georgia, his second in a row. He held off challenges from several players in the final round, including Scottie Scheffler. McElroy now has won six majors.”

“The emperor penguin is now listed as endangered. The International Union for Conservation of Nature made the declaration because emperor penguins in Antarctica rely on sea ice for many purposes, but it is melting rapidly. The Antarctic fur seal was also moved to the endangered category.”

“Congressman Eric Swalwell says he is suspending his campaign for California governor as he faces allegations of sexual assault, which he says are false. He had already decided not to run for reelection to the house. President Trump says The US will blockade the Strait Of Hormuz.”

“The governor of Russia's northwestern Leningrad region said Ukrainian drones caused a fuel leak at the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk, the latest in a series of attacks that have slowed shipments of oil out of one of Russia's largest export hubs. Separately, authorities in the Nizhny Novgorod region to the east of Moscow reported Ukrainian drone strikes caused a massive fire at one of Russia's largest oil refineries.”

“When the risk-free rate is this high, you have to be much more selective about paying for future growth.”

“From Iran's perspective, they feel emboldened... It discovered the Strait Of Hormuz and what havoc it can wreak, not only on The Gulf, but on the entire globe. Brent crude oil, the international standard, is above $96 a barrel in Asia ahead of talks in Pakistan Saturday on a potential permanent ceasefire.”

“Iran is believed to have placed mines in the strait, and a US official who's not authorized to speak publicly told NPR's Tom Bowman that minesweepers will also be used as part of the blockade. There are a lot of unknowns. You know, will any ships try to break a US blockade? And and if so, how will the US military respond? And what will Iran do?”

“And now they put the IRGC in a vice. It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't vice. They have two choices. They can escalate. Right now, they've enjoyed calm and peace for the last two weeks. They've seen their families. They're starting to formulate a picture of what the future might look like. They're glad that they don't have bombs raining down their head.”

“It's not impossible that while we, have seen a slight dip over the last week that we certainly could see gas prices reaccelerating, and it's not impossible that new records, with prices eventually rising above $5 a gallon remain possible.”

“People are hurting. They're hurting because of sheer lack of quantities. If you are in The Philippines, you're queuing the same way people were queuing here in the seventies to fill your tank. They are hurting because, they may be in need of helium for semiconductors.”

“The uptick in attacks comes as part of a wider Ukrainian effort to limit Russia's financial windfall from the US and Israel's decision to attack Iran. That war has brought soaring global energy prices and new customers for Russian oil and gas at a moment when Russia's economy had been struggling due to Western sanctions.”

“To the AI economy, where real estate developers are now spending more on data centers than office space. And is it time to call a boomer? Public phones in Boston and Nevada are connecting generations. We'll explain.”

“Riverside County sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, obtained them to investigate an alleged vote count discrepancy in a statewide election last year. Most disturbingly, there doesn't seem to be any indication of criminal wrongdoing. The California Supreme Court has halted Bianco's investigation while it reviews the case.”

“The two districts in Toronto were considered safe Liberal strongholds, and they won handily, providing Carney with at least 173 seats and a majority government. The majority assures prime minister Carney's government a stronger position in parliament and provides support on major nation building projects as well as his government's dealings on trade and tariff issues.”

“Iran is charging $2,000,000 for every ship that passes through the Strait Of Hormuz. And they have said in the agreement that they have full sovereignty over the Strait, and now they're gonna charge people for moving goods through it. So I guess the question is, one, do you think that that holds? And two, how significant is it from an inflation perspective? Because it seems like that is, yes, ships can pass through, but now there's a toll.”

“The market's reaction to the ceasefire suggests that the geopolitical risk premium has completely evaporated.”

“The president and Secretary Hegseth's rhetoric about no mercy, no quarter, death from above, the bombing of the Stone Ages, this kind of rhetoric is really dangerous because the likelihood of having downed pilots or others who are captured in a war like this is very high. And if you send the message that there's no quarter for the folks on the other side, that really encourages them to mistreat our folks.”

“Magdia's victory was hard won in an electoral system that over the past sixteen years, Orban had stacked in his favor from gerrymandering to controlling the media. As Brussels now looks forward to working with a more pro European Hungarian leader, Moscow and the current White House administration have lost in Orban, a key ally in Europe.”

“Bitcoin prices are about to go insane this week because after rallying to the top of this range, Bitcoin holders got some bad news. The two week ceasefires, which the market loved, might be coming to an abrupt end. And now we're starting to see traffic on the Strait Of Hermos slow down to a trickle. You could just see the log jams.”

“The San Francisco Chronicle first reported that all six trustees were terminated last week. Lisa Petri is a spokesperson for the trust. She says the park will continue to operate normally. Trump signed an executive order last year cutting any federal funding to the trust, but Petri says it has been self sufficient since 2013.”

“This week, Spain categorically denies White House claim it will cooperate on Iran war.”

“Democratic representative Eric Swalwell announced this evening that he's suspending his campaign for California governor. He made the announcement in a post on social media. Swawa was recently accused of sexual assault against several former staff members.”

“Helium plays a very important role in a number of industrial processes. Also, fertilizer, that's raising prices for farmers around the world, including here in the US. The fertilizer price goes up because there's a lack of fertilizer. Well, the prices for farmers go up and then food prices go up for consumers.”

“The scientists found that the same neurons that fire when someone looks at an object also fire when a person imagines that object. The finding supports earlier evidence from brain scans suggesting that seeing and imagining activate the same circuits.”

“Representative Eric Swalwell says he's suspending his campaign for California governor. He made the announcement Sunday in a social media post saying that he's deeply sorry for mistakes and judgment that he's made in the past. Allegations of sexual misconduct with a former staffer were made public on Friday.”

“Oil prices at the $100 mark now for a while. There's concern that could go up to $150, $170 a barrel. Over the weekend, United Airlines CEO says they're preparing for that scenario and you see a lot of companies adapting to a scenario where we could have high oil prices for a while.”

“If those December contracts move over 100, the world is a very different place than it is right now. And that will cause revaluation of various assets. And that will cause, certainly in our administration, doing everything they can to print money. The truth is with AI and with everything going on in the economy and with oil prices going up, it actually cuts economic growth. It cuts the aggregate demand.”

“We are looking for companies that have the ability to return capital to shareholders regardless of the macro backdrop.”

“In addition to the naval blockade, president Trump on Sunday said that The US would begin destroying mines laid by Iranians in the Strait Of Hormuz and added that Iranians would be, quote, blown to hell if they fired at The US. Over the past two weeks, president Trump has threatened to destroy Iran's infrastructure, bomb the country, quote, back to the stone age, and to wipe out its entire civilization in one night.”

“It's also interesting to me to see the pressure around this vis a vis their regional, like, neighbors because after they launch rockets and everybody, you know what we're not seeing for the Strait Of Hormuz blockade by The US is criticism from the other regional powers. This moves the war for both sides to a different layer of the strategic level of war.”

“This is just the beginning, and there's nothing that we can accomplish when we pull all of our differences together, not in spite of them, but when we pull them together and we work on something big for the good of everyone.”

“The first two days of the ceasefire have been shaky with strikes of varying severity happening in Lebanon, Iran, Israel, and the Gulf Arab states. The Iranians I spoke to at the border didn't wanna be named fearing reprisal upon their return, and none of them believed that the temporary truce would hold.”

“Maryland attorney general Anthony Brown says the states reached a settlement with Grace Ocean Private and Synergy Marine Group, the owner and manager of the Dali. The insurance company paid out $350,000,000 to the state of Maryland after the incident. There are still more than 50 parties, including the city of Baltimore, suing Grace Ocean and Synergy over the crash.”

“The general structure that we're seeing, very similar to what we're seeing right here. We had an all time high back in 2017, then we would run up in the next bull run. We had a high in 2021, and then we would run up in the next bull run. After this, we would do a couple things. We would test, test, fall below, bounce. And so we're seeing the same structure.”

“If they wanna have nuclear weapons, they're not gonna have nuclear weapons. I've been saying that for thirty years. I would never allow that to happen before I was in politics, and that country will not have nuclear weapons.”

“And now the Straits of Hormuz have been closed for a couple of days, and that's putting pressure on China.”

“Now to those massive, sometimes 6-hour TSA lines at some US airports over the weekend. As this partial DHS shutdown nears its 40-day mark, ICE agents are set to arrive to help speed things up at some airports today.”

“President Trump says the US Navy will block the Strait Of Hormuz from all ships, and the US military says that starts tomorrow. This after peace talks between The US and Iran and Pakistan yesterday failed to produce a deal.”

“Zeldin celebrated the EPA's decision to stop regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant. He says that policy was government overreach and focused too much on the worst case scenarios, despite scientific research showing that burning fossil fuels has increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to the highest level in human history.”

“For nearly a week, slow moving convoys of tractors and trucks have blocked major highways and roads across the country, including some of the busiest streets in Ireland's capital, Dublin. Protestors are demanding more support from the government as fuel prices continue to rise because of The US and Israel's war against Iran.”

“If Iran does not fully open without threat, the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first. So he wrote that on Saturday night, which means that 48 hour clock expires tonight.”

“30 percent AI is sentient like it's a living mechanism, like it has a certain things for itself. And that's concerning.”

“Voters in Hungary turned out in numbers not seen since the fall of communism Sunday and resoundingly rejected a reelection bid by long serving prime minister Viktor Orban. During his sixteen years in office, Orban often challenged the governance of the European Union. Incoming pre prime minister, Peter Magyar, says he will repair Hungary's relations with the EU.”

“The judge issued an order Monday saying that Trump had failed to make the argument that the article describing a birthday card to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein was published with malicious intent. Trump denies writing it and said he will be refiling the complaint. Shares in Asia higher in Tuesday trading. The markets in Japan, South Korea, and China all gaining ground.”

“President Trump warned Iran today in a profane written post on social media that the US will attack key Iranian economic and infrastructure installations Tuesday. This, if no deal, is agreed to before then to keep open the key strait of Hormuz.”

“In a post on x Sunday, Swalwell said he was suspending a campaign that has been imploding since multiple women alleged that the San Francisco Bay Area Democrat had sexually forced himself on them. Swalwell had been gaining momentum in the race, winning key endorsements and leading other Democrats in pre election polls.”

“Gonzalez's resignation announcement came hours after California Democratic representative Eric Swalwell also announced his own plan to resign. Swalwell is facing allegations of sexual assault and misconduct from at least four women. Gonzales had already dropped his bid for reelection after being forced into a primary runoff and the launch of a congressional ethics investigation into his behavior.”

“President Trump said on Truth Social that dozens of planes took part in the operation to save the airmen after his F-15 fighter jet was hit over western Iran on Friday. The plane's pilot was quickly rescued, but the weapons officer, an Air Force colonel, had to go into hiding. Trump wrote, quote, This brave warrior was behind enemy lines in the treacherous mountains of Iran.”

“The WLFI vs. Justin Sun feud is turning into a full legal brawl over a $75M loan dispute, backdoor token blacklisting, and accusations flying both ways — exactly the kind of circus that undermines crypto's push for institutional credibility. This adds to the geopolitical weight already slowing markets after the Islamabad peace talks collapsed, and Iran's Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed following the new naval blockade.”

“Bitcoin would stop at this point right here, this teal line, and Bitcoin would consolidate for a long time. We can measure this. Bitcoin would consolidate for two hundred and thirty seven days. It would be in a range. It would retest this line, retest this level of resistance, and then shoot right past it. What do you know? This level of resistance would come very, very close to support.”

“I think the bottom's in for markets overall. That doesn't mean you don't get a pullback, especially going to OpEx later this week. But I think, overall, I think you've you've got a bottom. There's so much hedging, so much shorting taking place. There's not many people left to sell, and I think there there are great opportunities out there.”

“I view this as a part of a broader, a very corrosive trend, and that that's the deglobalization of the economy that The US is pulling away from the rest of the world very quickly. I mean, you know, tariffs, immigration policy, what we're doing geopolitically. And then, of course, now the rest of the world is pulling away from us very quickly. If we are deglobalizing and this is just one more thing that will cause that process to continue and potentially even accelerate, it has all kinds of corrosive effects.”

“The underlying data suggests that getting back to 2% inflation is going to be much harder than expected.”

“First, Northwest blooms were teased open by a mild winter and warm spring temperatures. Then, whack, freezing temps hit, killing the blooms before they get pollinated. Matthew Whiting is a professor who specializes in cherry trees at Washington State University Research Station in Prosser.”

“If all of a sudden the ceasefire is back on and negotiations are happening, Bitcoin's gonna pump, stock market's gonna pump, oil's gonna crash. But if it looks like there is gonna be no talks at a table, there is gonna be no meetings, well, then expect the opposite. Oil's gonna spike, and we're gonna see Bitcoin in the stock market fall.”

“The US is a big economy—it's the largest on the planet—so, you know, it's still gonna play a very central role, but increasingly less of one as we move forward. We have benefited enormously from the globalization process and the fact that The US is central and the US dollar is central to everything that goes on in the world. And that is now gonna be under pressure; it was under pressure before all this, and it will be under even more pressure going forward.”

“Bitcoin keeps running into a wall of selling above $70K — roughly $20M/hour in profit-taking — and now that wall has geopolitical weight behind it after the Islamabad peace talks collapsed, Iran's Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed, and Trump ordered a naval blockade of Iranian ports starting this morning. That's pushing oil toward $100/barrel and forcing tanker traffic into a full reroute away from the Gulf.”

“Jenna Lewis says she drove nearly a half hour to the Tulalip Reservation north of Seattle to save 55¢ a gallon. It's one of hundreds of reservation gas stations across The US with many offering some of the cheapest fuel prices because they're not subject to state taxes. Those range from 9¢ a gallon in Alaska to as high as 71¢ in California across the 35 states with federally recognized Native American tribes.”

“Up six bucks today.”

“Our political system in the United States is broken. I mean, it's not just that people think Congress are a bunch of parasitic jackals, which is true, by the way... But it's actually worse than that. It's just completely dysfunctional. That is a large part of this. I mean, if we knew we were going to have a new Federal Reserve Chair in May, which you would think would be known, I think markets would be very different.”

“Is the market being too optimistic about the long-term stability of this truce?”

“Magdi's victory was hard won in an electoral system that over the past sixteen years, Orban had stacked in his favor from gerrymandering to controlling the media. As Brussels now looks forward to working with a more pro European Hungarian leader, Moscow and the current White House administration have lost in Orban, a key ally in Europe.”

“House kills effort to release all congressional sexual misconduct and harassment reports.”

“Trump said The US seized an Iranian flagship in the Gulf Of Oman. This is the first known use of force in the blockade, and this happened after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked two commercial vessels. So now uncertainty hangs over The US Iran talks as the ceasefire deadline looms. We don't know if the ceasefire is gonna hold.”

“The dollar's long-term slide continues — now just 46% of global FX and gold reserves, a 26-year low — even as M2 keeps expanding at 4.8% YoY, and central bank gold holdings have officially eclipsed US Treasury holdings for the first time since '96. That's pushing oil toward $100/barrel and forcing tanker traffic into a full reroute away from the Gulf, which benefits US energy exports but hammers Japan, South Korea, and India hardest.”

“It's possible if fighting could start again if Iran starts hitting US warships or commercial ships trying to transit through the Strait Of Hormuz or attacking the energy sector of Gulf allies. The Iranians have said they have major untouched levers to pull in response to the blockade, but we don't know what that means. At this point, it's an economic war trying to get Iran back to negotiating cable.”

“Feels pretty close to script, more or less. You know, the president has gone down this path in other ways. And when push comes to shove, when markets start to react, when stock prices are down, when interest rates are up, and in this case, when oil prices are up, he figures out a way to pivot, to stand down, and to declare victory and hopefully move on.”

“Virginians are voting on a measure that could result in a four seat gain in Virginia's congressional delegation for Democrats. That could make house minority leader Hakeem Jeffries speaker of the house. Virginia could be one of the last states to act in the national redistricting frenzy kicked off by Trump.”

“The US naval blockade on Iranian ports took effect April 13 at 10AM eastern after peace talks in Islamabad collapsed over the weekend according to NPR. As a reminder, rough estimates, 12,000,000 barrels per day normally transit the straight, and now that is going to roughly zero. Trump warned Iran's fast attack ships if any ships come anywhere close to our blockade, they will be immediately eliminated.”

“And it is asymmetric. It affects different countries differently. If you are in the vicinities of the conflict, it's a big hit on you. If you are an oil importer, it is a big hit on you. If you have no reserves to protect yourself, you're in a very tough, situation.”

“Zeldin celebrated the EPA's decision to stop regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant. He says that policy was government overreach and focused too much on the worst case scenarios. Zeldin spoke at a conference of the Heartland Institute, a free market group that denies that humans are contributing to climate change.”

“I think prices are permanently higher. I mean, when I say permanent, nothing's permanent, but at least in the foreseeable future, this year, next year, the year after. You know, we're not there's no going back to the $60, $65 bucks a barrel we were paying before all this mess. You're still left with a fee that's not inconsequential, and then, of course, insurance companies are gonna demand a higher insurance premium for insuring the traffic that moves through this strait because, you know, who knows what will happen in the future.”