Altcoins failed to participate in the recent rally
βIn fact, one of the craziest charts you'll see, I think, is if you look at altcoins against the valuation of silver, they're actually below their 2022 lows. So the reason why there's just this lack of interest in crypto, even though Bitcoin went up like 8X, is because almost everything else failed to participate in the actual bull market.β
Quantitative tightening prevented a classic altcoin rotation
βThe bear market and then the subsequent Bitcoin-only bull market essentially started during the time of quantitative tightening, and that's really what happened the same thing this past cycle. The bear market started around the time that you could see the end of QE, and then the Bitcoin-only bull market started before quantitative tightening was over.β
The 3-Day Death Cross Signal - A rare technical indicator has formed on the 3-day chart, suggesting Bitcoin is mirroring the structural behavior of previous macro bear cycles.
βA death cross formed on the 3-day charts and now Bitcoin is following the playbook of previous bear markets!β
Macro Sentiment Shift - While the title suggests a reversal, the technical data points to a period of volatility where Bitcoin must retest established historical support levels to prove the bottom is in.
βA death cross formed on the 3-day charts and now Bitcoin is following the playbook of previous bear markets!β
Market topped on retail apathy instead of euphoria
βWhy did it feel so different than the top in 2021? Why did it feel so different than the top in 2017 and also the top in 2013? And I think the reason is because you could argue that if the top is in, we actually topped on apathy rather than euphoria, right? There wasn't really a rotation into alt coins. There was not that euphoric feeling.β
Mainstream media fundamentally fails to understand crypto
βIt depresses me how much of the mainstream media still don't understand it to any degree. And even the Financial Times, the Financial Times in the UK, supposedly one of the top publications for finance is still empty crypto. It's been doing 150 percent care go for the last 15 years. It's rubbish, it's a ponzi. It will never last. Oh, please just try study it a little bit.β
Retail investors struggle with discipline and execution
βI just literally spoke to him an hour ago and I said, how did you get on? He said, oh, well, I sold the Mercedes, Benz and the Porsche, but I didn't get around to buying the other stuff. And it's like, you can do so much in the interim. Some of the mining stocks are up 70%, silver's up to another 25% in the last month or two. People are lazy.β
Current price action mirrors the 2019 market cycle
βIf you look at the current bear market... it's actually holding up a lot better than all the prior bear markets. Normally at this point, we would have experienced a 50% drawdown, which we haven't experienced yet. But if you actually compare to the one in 2019, it actually tracks a little bit better.β
βI kind of see happening is I see a slow bleed into the summer with slightly lower highs and slightly lower lows, right? That's kind of what happened in 2019. It wasn't a massive capitulation. It was just a series of slightly lower highs and slightly lower lows. And I think that will likely last into the summer of 2026.β
Wall Street manipulates narratives to facilitate entry
βJP Morgan, BlackRock, all of them like, oh, it's terrible, it's awful, it doesn't make any money, it's a Ponzi scheme. And then they all do it because they see, well, we can make a lot of money in it, so who cares? You don't have any moral high ground. You never have, so stop trying to find it.β
Institutional ETFs allow for manipulative price suppression
βBut within the iBit ETF, they can be long and short. So, hey, if you've got that much clout, shove the price of Bitcoin down, scare off the balance of the retail, and then mop it all up, is my thinking anyway. They've been trying to push MicroStrategy to liquidate, because it's so blatant the way that they've been doing it.β
Strategic profit-taking is essential for surviving volatility
βSo with crypto, I was very much with my clients. Look, when it doubles or trebles, we take the stake out. If it quadruples, we take profit, et cetera, et cetera. Bitcoin was actually easy. 2020, 2021, until it tanked, it went up. If you're a technical trader, it went up, it pulled back. But it was a case of being in the right time, the right place at the right time, for sure.β