SECURE STRAIT

“What we're seeing is that the void is being filled by leaders who in most cases are more radical than the people who have replaced. And by more radical, we mean that they are staunchly anti-American and have no tolerance for domestic dissent. And many of them are kind of guided by this apocalyptic military ideology.”

“President Trump said on Truth Social that dozens of planes took part in the operation to save the airmen after his F-15 fighter jet was hit over western Iran on Friday. The plane's pilot was quickly rescued, but the weapons officer, an Air Force colonel, had to go into hiding. Trump wrote, quote, This brave warrior was behind enemy lines in the treacherous mountains of Iran. US rescue aircraft came under fire, but managed to reach the airmen and fly him out of the country.”

“China since 1949, since the communists took over, has a track record of never ever ever helping in any international organization or environment. They're cheap skates at the United Nations when it comes to paying bills. I mean, we may not pay our bill but at least we volunteer to have a big bill. On top of it, they don't untreat the security anywhere in the world.”

“I think we would have to assume that they're non-negotiable or it's going to be anything about regime change or human rights within Iran. They're going to want to be absolutely sure that they can maintain control in Iran. The other three files—nuclear, missiles, and proxies—are different, but regime survival is hardline.”

“Absolutely not. In fact, what we have seen is a hardening of Iran's leadership. The more extreme elements of the Revolutionary Guards and hardliners in the political system are now much more firmly in control than they were before the war. There has been a change in the regime and it's been for the worse.”

“President Trump warned Iran today in a profane written post on social media that the US will attack key Iranian economic and infrastructure installations Tuesday. This, if no deal, is agreed to before then to keep open the key strait of Hormuz. On NBC's Meet the Press, Democratic Senator Tim Kaine criticized the president.”

“On today’s show, a source inside Iran tells us how ships had been getting through the strait, and how the tollbooth Iran set up works.”

“Some analysts say that had there not been a war, the selection of Mushtaba Khamenei would have been a lot less likely. But because his father had been killed, because he was injured, because there was war, it meant that there was more momentum behind him, that choosing him sent a message of continuity and defiance from the political leadership.”

“But this isn't about retribution. This is about preventing them from imposing their will on the Middle East and on US security interests in the Middle East for the next three, five or seven years. And in that case, I am okay with this conflict. We are achieving a lot of mission, but we haven't won.”

“Iran is sending the message that they think they've won, right? That the war has actually has been in their favor, despite these kind of devastating losses to Iran's military capabilities and infrastructure. The war has also showed that they have cards to play, that they were able to basically hold the world economy hostage. And I think the fact they found this new leverage in the Strait of Hormuz has further added to this sense of confidence.”

“The uptick in attacks comes as part of a wider Ukrainian effort to limit Russia's financial windfall from the US and Israel's decision to attack Iran. That war has brought soaring global energy prices and new customers for Russian oil and gas at a moment when Russia's economy had been struggling due to Western sanctions.”

“Iran is sending the message that they think they've won, right? That the war has actually has been in their favor, despite these kind of devastating losses to Iran's military capabilities and infrastructure. The war has also showed that they have cards to play, that they were able to basically hold the world economy hostage. And I think the fact they found this new leverage in the Strait of Hormuz has further added to this sense of confidence.”

“The Iranian regime is essentially signing its own death warrant by continuing down this path of escalation and refusal to compromise. They are betting that the West is too tired of conflict to respond, but history shows that when you threaten the global economy and pursue nuclear weapons simultaneously, you eventually cross a line that cannot be uncrossed. This regime is flirting with total destruction.”

“The second is that we have combat air patrol, probably either two or four set slots, which means four or eight aircraft persistently overhead whenever we're convoying with F-15s, F-16s or F-18s equipped with what's called the Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System, APKWS, a cheap rocket, a $25,000 rocket that is extremely effective against the Shahed drones. It's used extensively by Ukraine and it's effective in a maritime environment.”

“Iran's new national security chief is someone called Mohammed Bagher Zulkhadra. He's a former Revolutionary Guard commander and has a very violent background. Before the Revolution, he was basically an assassin who was personally involved in the assassination of policemen as well as of an American engineer. He was considered so extreme even by his own peers who thought he was too radical even for them.”

“Absolutely not. In fact, what we have seen is a hardening of Iran's leadership. The more extreme elements of the Revolutionary Guards and hardliners in the political system are now much more firmly in control than they were before the war. There has been a change in the regime and it's been for the worse.”

“They've now discovered that they can control it, that they can even threaten ships by suggesting there are mines at the bottom of the seas. And, of course, insurance companies are not going to risk it, and that alone will upend the global shipping and energy and economy.”

“Iran has attacked ships that try to pass without approval. And recently they’ve insinuated that one part of the Strait — the part near Oman — is not safe.”

“They are announcing to the world that they won’t negotiate on nuclear arms or their missile programs, which is essentially telling the international community to go jump in a lake. This isn't just posturing; it's a fundamental rejection of the diplomatic process. When you refuse to talk about the very weapons that threaten the existence of your neighbors, you are signaling that you have no intention of ever living in peace.”

“Iran's new national security chief is someone called Mohammed Bagher Zulkhadra. He's a former Revolutionary Guard commander and has a very violent background. Before the Revolution, he was basically an assassin who was personally involved in the assassination of policemen as well as of an American engineer. He was considered so extreme even by his own peers who thought he was too radical even for them.”

“Well, because these generals are not as motivated and driven by the cleric ideology that defined Iran in the past forty seven years, sort of the death to America, the religious theocracy. What motivates these generals is power and money. And for both of those things to happen, the regime needs to survive, and it needs to thrive economically.”

“The IRGC has decided that the best way to handle their failing economy and their failing legitimacy at home is to lash out at the global energy supply by launching new attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. This is a classic move by a regime that feels the walls closing in, but they are playing a very dangerous game with the world's oil supply. If they think the world is just going to sit by while they choke off the energy lanes, they are deeply mistaken.”

“The incident started when a gunman attempted to storm the annual event where president Trump and senior cabinet officials were in attendance. The attacker ran through a security checkpoint and exchanged fire with the authorities before being subdued and taken into custody. He was armed with knives, a shotgun, and a handgun.”

“Some analysts say that had there not been a war, the selection of Mushtaba Khamenei would have been a lot less likely. But because his father had been killed, because he was injured, because there was war, it meant that there was more momentum behind him, that choosing him sent a message of continuity and defiance from the political leadership.”

“He's had three operations and is waiting for a prosthetic leg. He's had operations on one of his arms and hands, and his face and lips have been burned severely. And the burns are so extensive that he can't even speak properly, which is one of the reasons why we haven't heard his voice or seen his face.”

“I think that we saw a very strong statement from Rutte, the Secretary General of NATO, saying that the coalition would always come together and it would support the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. And in a way, the Iranians have helped us in this respect, because closing international waters is obviously against international law.”

“And what my largest concern is that sometimes when the president says we won, the next words I have is about our cease operations. That would actually lead to a capital L loss for the United States and for our allies and partners because very quickly, we become clear to everyone that Iran remains in control of the Straits of Hormuz at this time. We have not yet established our control over that.”

“The newly appointed Iranian ambassador in Lebanon, the Lebanese have withdrawn their agreement to his appointment, and he is to stay even though he's not being given credentials by the government of Lebanon. Now it's an extraordinary statement that Lebanon is not a sovereign country and that the sovereignty in Lebanon is possessed by the Iranians.”

“The president and Secretary Hegseth's rhetoric about no mercy, no quarter, death from above, the bombing of the Stone Ages, this kind of rhetoric is really dangerous because the likelihood of having downed pilots or others who are captured in a war like this is very high. And if you send the message that there's no quarter for the folks on the other side, that really encourages them to mistreat our folks.”

“There is a move within the Democratic Party toward what I call Third Worldism, where the interests of rogue states are prioritized over the interests of the United States and its allies. This perspective sees the United States as a global bully rather than a force for good. It’s a ideology that treats the IRGC with more sympathy than it treats the people who are actually trying to maintain order in the Middle East.”

“President Trump is currently doing what he does best: keeping everyone guessing as to what his next move will be. The media wants a five-point plan, but Trump understands that unpredictability is a form of leverage. By keeping the Iranian regime off-balance, he prevents them from being able to calculate exactly how far they can push before they face a devastating response.”

“And we ask: What does this all mean for the global economy? This episode of Planet Money was hosted by Nick Fountain.”

“Which means that captains had to go right by Iran’s shores to get through the Strait … effectively creating a chokepoint for the global economy.”

“Every time I would ask that question from sources, I would say, who is making the decisions? Who's running the country? And I would hear Sepah. Sepah means the revolutionary guards. No one said the Ayatollah. No one said it's the supreme leader, and that was just such a difference to how things were done before the war where the senior Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran for thirty seven years, always had the last word on all decisions that were critical to the state.”

“The United States has been at war with Iran since February 28th. And for a month and a half, Iran’s main leverage over the U.S. has been their control over the Strait of Hormuz — a key global shipping route.”

“Iran's foreign minister went to Islamabad, and The US special envoy Steve Witkoff and president Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner were scheduled to also fly to Pakistan on Saturday, and everyone anticipated another round of talks. And then we started getting mixed messages. The Iranians said, oh, well, we're not meeting directly with the Americans, and the foreign minister left Pakistan.”

“In the case of President Trump, you know, you and I have talked before about his negotiating style. He likes to carry a big stick. He weighs it initially. He then uses it. And then, of course, he very quickly pivots to, you know, you can have peace if you'll just make the right deal. Everything is about the art of the deal, isn't it?”

“The governor of Russia's northwestern Leningrad region said Ukrainian drones caused a fuel leak at the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk, the latest in a series of attacks that have slowed shipments of oil out of one of Russia's largest export hubs. Separately, authorities in the Nizhny Novgorod region to the east of Moscow reported Ukrainian drone strikes caused a massive fire at one of Russia's largest oil refineries.”

“For the first time in forty seven years, the generals have gone to the Americans and said, if there's a deal, your oil and shipping companies can come and invest in Iran. You can help us reconstruct and rebuild. And that's something that's never been done before.”

“What we're seeing is that the void is being filled by leaders who in most cases are more radical than the people who have replaced. And by more radical, we mean that they are staunchly anti-American and have no tolerance for domestic dissent. And many of them are kind of guided by this apocalyptic military ideology.”

“And the fourth and the most important, the one that does not exist at this moment, is 10 to 14 large surface combatants. We know them as ages destroyers, like the Arleigh Burke class destroyers you're seeing on the TV, Launch of the Tomahawks. Those same ones have a great air defense system. They're the perfect escort ship. I think 10 to 14 of them is kind of the right number to at least get the initial choke, the 250 ships that are stuck on the inside the Gulf out.”

“The nuclear file, I think it's entirely possible that the Iranians will be willing to agree to most of what the United States is asking for on the nuclear file because, you know, this is the one area where it's obvious that the US will not be willing to compromise. So we might look to see whether they've actually moved towards the idea that they would have to accept an end to their nuclear program.”