Global diplomacy increasingly rewards displays of raw strength
βChina responds well to strength. The US now responds well to strength. So who does Trump not mess with China? Because they've restricted breaths and basically threatened put Detroit into cardiac arrest and strike their shoulders. And I think what Europe in particular is missing is that there are hands they could play that maybe are nonintuitive to them, but doesn't mean they wouldn't work.β
Global gas turbine crunch threatens LNG power builds
βI think there's a lot of problem with it. But then mostly due to overall problems with gas. First of all, the gas turbines are used to build a power plant and nasua are the same ones you use to build a data center. And the cost of a turbine is now it's over five hundred dollars per killer what it was used to be about one thousand.β
βI think the thing that's confusing everyone is we keep seeing these headlines about like a billion barrels lost of world supply or twenty percent of the world's oil supply now choked out because of the Horror Moves situation. And yet if you look at the oil price, you know WTI Brent definitely up, but they're not up as much as you might think given the scale of disruption.β
EV adoption is staggering as inventories drop sharply
βSimilarly, you're also starting to see a staggering acceleration in IV adoption. If you do calls to auto dealers around Asia and ask them how much time electric vehicles stay on the lots down to single days, and many of them are back or now, So if there probably wasn't, maybe.β
βWhich means that captains had to go right by Iranβs shores to get through the Strait β¦ effectively creating a chokepoint for the global economy.β
βIran has attacked ships that try to pass without approval. And recently theyβve insinuated that one part of the Strait β the part near Oman β is not safe.β
Asian countries face acute energy rationing and stress
βYou're certainly saying aious constraints on consumption where they don't really have a lot of refining capacity, and where there is, they just don't have large amounts of crude story. So places like the Philippines and Vietnam are already under some significant stress. A lot of it is also driven by the factors. It's kind of a question of whether you can get credit lines to be able to pay these prices.β
βThe United States has been at war with Iran since February 28th. And for a month and a half, Iranβs main leverage over the U.S. has been their control over the Strait of Hormuz β a key global shipping route.β
βThe challenge right now for Asia is that most of their crede supply does come from the Middle East, or there are some countries which do have some domestic production Malaysia, China of course, but broadly speaking, Asia is a massive crude import, and principally from the Middle East because it's the most proximate supply and generalize the chapest shipping distances and costs.β
Energy crises accelerate nuclear restarts in East Asia
βIn Japan, they have been undertaking a number of nuclear restarts. They were moving very tentatively as the public got behind nuclear and the politics became less challenging. That that is all apparently accelerating now, so Japan will push very hard on nuclear restarts, and more importantly, the public polling is really strong for it, so there's not a lot of political risk.β
Storage proliferation is crushing peak Australian power prices
βWhat's happened with this proliferation of storage is that gas no longer reliably sets the price in those hours and sickly in Australia, where it's often somewhat oligobalistic market structure, having a lot of residential batteries tied together in a mesh network which then bids into the market is really crushing those peaky times of the day and that has a disproportionate impact on average daily prices.β