“Two economists are walking down a path where the first economist says to the second, I'll give you a $100 to eat that pile of dog poo up ahead. The second economist says, sure thing, and eats it all up. Takes his $100. A few minutes later, the second economist spots another mess left by another dog and excitedly says to the first guy, I'll give you a $100 to eat that pile of dog poo, to which the first economist says, sure. Of course. A few moments later, the first economist says, hang on. We just both ate dog poo, and we're no richer than before. The second economist replies, but you're forgetting. We just increased GDP by $200.”
“Speaking of unpopular, I would pay our polies a whole lot more, and I'll ban them for taking corporate roles after after politics. We're in the in the in the ministry of their responsibility. Just you know? And and in fact, I'd I'd further prime minister and the treasurer gonna speak in the circuit forever, but never hold a corporate role. And other ministers only can only hold corporate role in in in industries in which they weren't ministers for during that time.”
“Germany is the powerhouse of Europe. It's something like it's between a quarter and a third of the entire euro GDP. As an economy, it's 28% larger than The UK. It's 50% larger than the French economy. And the Germans were known for being the industrial powerhouse. And yet, GDP growth over the last five years has averaged less than 1% per annum in real terms. Now just let that sink in. This is Germany. And they they're not even at one percentage point of average GDP growth over the last five years.”
“The European one, I went with IEU, which is the iShares Europe ETF. So that launched, kind of before that sovereign debt crisis. So obviously, you had a terrible run between 2008 and 2012 or so. So if you bought that thing in inception, you bet about 2.1% per annum. Even if you sort of pick the bottom, you know, over the last ten ish odd years, you've made 6% nominal. And let's let's call that about 3% real. And then the currency risk is, like, at this point, it's like, open up an ING high interest savings account.”
Reservation schemes encourage cheaper, faster gas use
“On gas reservation schemes, you said it encourages using up a valuable resource quickly. I take your point, Robert, the other stuff, and I I'm not saying it's not incorporating the economics of when it's known in advance. Just that the reality of anything, anything that's cheaper will will have more of it used. It's just kinda is what it is.”
“38% down. That that well, I mean, I gotta read the announcement. But this is a $10,000,000,000 company. They're now guiding for 290 to 330,000,000 in net profit for FY '26. Even with that, they're still on a PE of 33. So and when I say it's the it's the problem of the day because it it it's sort of like I mean, it's in the same situation with CSL, WiseTech, Xero, Pro Medicus, blah blah blah, you know, whatever.”
Royalties should be set where marginal projects fail
“If I was setting resources and royalties and rents, the the the the the only right spot is the only right level is the point at which the marginal project becomes unprofitable. That's the that's the only point it should be set at. I don't care if companies don't make money. I don't care if they don't drill the oil. Leave that until the price is high, and they'll come and do it then, which is great because then we wait and get something for it.”
Ethan doubled his portfolio through patient investing
“Two years ago, my son Ethan and I wrote in about his investing journey, and we do. Saving his pocket money and having family contribute to investments instead of more toys. I'm pleased to share that he stayed the course and has more than doubled his portfolio through contributions and returns. He truly believes in the process and loved hearing his question read out and wearing the next Warren Buffett label as you had titled the podcast.”
Diversification beyond ten stocks dilutes your upside
“Diversification is BS. Now not that all your eggs in one basket, but it's like good high quality ideas are exceedingly, exceedingly rare. So you don't back up the truck and put everything into one asset or even three. But really, once you get to 10, I think the academics who have studied, it's somewhere between thirteen and eighteen stocks after which that's the full benefit of diversification. So when you see people who have 80 stock portfolio, you're not getting any value out of it. And in fact, all you're doing is you're diluting from the upside.”
