Global trade interdependencies limit US military leverage
โWhat if we learn that this world is wildly interdependent? More so than most of us appreciate. The moment you try and chop off an arm, all of a sudden you discover interdependencies and what there seems to be. At least those two stories tell us that that may be a fairly general thing.โ
Iran war threatens massive household economic stability
โThe administration has proposed a $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027, which makes me think, okay, this is all noise, this is all nonsense. Gas prices are continued to be elevated. I think there are more than 30 percent since the war began. It seems as though this is only going to continue. At least that's my sense, but maybe I'm being pessimistic.โ
โWhat the president calls a deal is not, I promise I will give up this and you will give up that. Promise means I'm going to follow through. What he has at the moment is press releases. What he's capable of delivering is, if you do this and I do this and it's in your best interests and it's in my best interests, we can get there. Which is basically a small set of possible outcomes.โ
Strait of Hormuz blockade reveals strategic US weakness
โIran showed that it has control over the Strait of Hormuz. That's actually very important and a major loss to the United States. When someone reveals a weakness that you had, that's as bad as them creating a weakness. And so if eight weeks ago, Iran didn't understand itself to have leverage, it had never had the opportunity to test it. Today it does.โ
โI'm confused because we have one extra layer that we don't normally have, which is we have no idea what the truth is. I'm not being funny. There was a time when someone said the following is a red line, you would understand it to be a red line. There was a time when someone said these are the conditions, you understood it to be the conditions. There was a time when someone said we've reached an agreement, you would understand that they'd reached an agreement. None of those things are true right now.โ