REBUILD EUROPEAN ALLIANCES

“Well, I was looking at a recent model. I mean, these are difficult things to predict, and it's maybe an exaggeration, but capital economics, which is a reputable think tank, predicts that Qatar's economy will contract by 13% this year, that UAE's may contract by 8%. To put that in context, under normal growth conditions, that would be seven years it would need to get back the growth.”

“What's beginning to happen here is an America which doesn't even pay lip service to global norms. In fact, celebrates outrageously chaotically defying them. In fact, what I would say is that the United States is increasingly behaving like Israel, but Israel's reason for doing it was always that it was a small country facing existential threat. That was the justification Israel came for rejecting the UN, declaring the Secretary General of the UN persona non grata, rejecting international legal arguments.”

“Trump then followed up saying that the US was going to block these Straits of Hormuz, put a naval blockade in place, later clarified as a blockade on any vessels touching Iranian ports. And that's where we currently are. Global oil prices are now rising. Global economies are already feeling the shock because, in effect, what this means is that vessels that were not favoured by Iran, previously were very reluctant to go through the Straits, but vessels with an Iranian stamp could go through.”

“Now, the oil price has actually dipped just below $100 a barrel this morning, I think. But we're still talking about it going from $60 at the start of March to $70 fairly recently. So it's a 70% increase whichever way you look at it. Nurse Avondelayan, president of the European Commission, she's outlined that the European Union's bill for fossil fuel imports since the war began has risen by more than $22 billion.”

“His story, which I thought was very interesting, is that what could happen is Europe could transform its security architecture if it took in the UK, Norway, Ukraine, and Turkey. Effectively, what he's saying is if you actually want Europe to guarantee that it can defend itself against Russia, those are the countries you need to bolt on. It's not just a statement about values, not just a statement about European extension, it's a solution to America withdrawing.”

“This is classic Trump. I've got a ceasefire, I'm going to send JD Vance, and it's all going to be done. And they give up because Iran didn't fold on day one. And meanwhile, just to underline how utterly unserious they are, Trump and Rubio, who seems to me these days just to be kind of glorified bad carrier, they're at a UFC fight.”