Stagflationary signals are emerging in US data - a significant downward revision to Q4 GDP paired with a 'hotter' Core PCE print is challenging the narrative of a resilient economic soft landing.
โThe first revision to Q4 GDP was cut in half, down to 7 tenths of a percent from 1 percentage point... That's not the kind of mix that supports an economic resilience narrative.โ
Geopolitical tension is pushing oil toward $100 - US military deployments and potential closures of the Strait of Hormuz are driving crude prices higher while creating a volatile environment for global trade.
โWTI crew diverse earlier declines to finish up over 3% on the day, just under $100 a barrel.โ
Physical and financial oil markets showed extreme decoupling
โWe had two different prices going at the same time. We had the the Brent, the futures price, which was always saying, well, this is gonna end and prices are gonna come down. And then there was the dated Brent, the near term, which said, we are having a major dislocation and prices are really going up. And we've never seen that dislocation on that scale before. It was like two different visions of the world almost.โ
โThe head of Iran's forensic medical agency says the country's death toll in the war over the past six weeks has surpassed three thousand. Additionally, 857 schools, 32 universities, and 338 hospitals were damaged or destroyed by air strikes, according to the Iranian Red Crescent.โ
FAA approves anti-drone lasers for border security
โThe FAA says antidrone lasers can now be used along The US Southern border. Earlier this year, the agency had shut down airspace in some parts of Texas after the Pentagon deployed the lasers. Now the FAA and Pentagon have signed an agreement that outlines the safety precautions that will be employed.โ
Asia faces the most severe energy security threats
โI think from the industry point of view, they saw there there are major dislocations, and those dislocations are playing out unevenly across the world. Asia hit the hardest, Europe feeling it, and then The US mainly seen it in terms of rising prices at the gasoline pump, but no problem getting supplies. But in Asia, a big problem getting supplies.โ
โIran's ability to control the Strait against a much stronger military is a demonstration that the balance of global power is changing, with profound ramifications for countries around the world. We discuss how different regions are being affected, and how it will change their calculus when it comes to energy security.โ
Energy price spikes drive inflation to 3.3 percent
โConsumer prices in March were up 3.3% from a year ago. That's the biggest annual increase in almost two years. Prices jumped nine tenths of a percent between February and March with a spike in gasoline prices accounting for nearly three quarters of that increase. Gas prices have jumped by more than a dollar a gallon since The US and Israel launched their war on Iran.โ
AI demand is reshaping the global electricity landscape
โWe also talk about the AI industry's seemingly insatiable demand for electricity, and how this is rippling across the entire energy landscape. This is part of the long term trajectory of the energy layout which seems to have been altered, no matter what happens immediately with the conflict in Iran.โ
Hormuz closure is the mother of supply chain shocks
โWell, it was that in fact a nightmare scenario that had been in not only for energy, but for strategic planners for decades had happened. I think it's one of those things that people looked at as a scenario but thought it would never happen, but then it happened. And it does change the world and it changes the way people think about energy. We've had supply chain shocks, but this was the mother of all supply chain shocks in terms of the closure of the Strait Of Hormuz.โ
โNASA administrator Jared Isaacman, who went to space twice as a private astronaut, was on the ship with workers from the US Navy and NASA. It was the first time that the US Navy and NASA had teamed up for a spacecraft recovery since the end of the Apollo lunar program in 1972.โ
Wildlife trade significantly increases human disease risk
โIt found forty one percent of traded mammals shared at least one pathogen with humans, while just 6% of non traded ones did. And the longer humans have been trading animals, the more viruses they share. For every decade in the wildlife trade, an additional new pathogen jumps to humans.โ
Energy security is reviving the nuclear sector - the escalating Iran crisis is forcing nations like Japan to prioritize nuclear power as a critical hedge against Middle Eastern oil disruptions.
โJapan's opposition party is calling for increased nuclear plant usage to offset the Iran crisis, and that's highlighting how energy security is becoming a critical investment theme.โ