โA lot of just, as I said, a lot of the assets that we're targeting are just too small. You know, they're rounding errors on the balance sheets of these large shale companies who are buying tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of acres and drilling two to three miles under the ground. So it's just, we produce the same product. It's just a very different business.โ
โBut if you look at the Baker Hughes oil and gas rig count, it's basically been trending sideways. In fact, the last available data, it fell by three. And then if you go out even further, it's been going sideways and slightly down since basically 2023. So we haven't seen a big supply side push, and that's despite a lot of noise coming out from the administration about unleashing US energy.โ
โI expect the same thing here at d five. I think it's reached probably a bottom, and it's gonna take maybe a year or two plus. Then it'll come back in a massive way, and I think there's gonna be some great innovation learning from these problems and then, yeah, new protocols and primitives being built.โ
โThe new market is agents accessing something because it's reliable when it works and it's secure. And I think that market is just getting started, and I think that's a massive opportunity right now for both Morform and Aave and human trust brands as well as new entrants that are popping up.โ
โThe horizontal shale game has largely become the domain of very large companies. I mean, you've got to have scale to be able to operate in that space. We're largely a production company. So the way to kind of think about it is, we buy assets that we think are undercapitalized, underappreciated, try to squeeze a little bit more juice out of each producing well and try to get cost down.โ
โI think for a while, the last few years, the industry has optimized for scalability and speed and whereas in the early days of blockchain, we really optimized for security. And I think that pendulum is swinging back. Now we know that we can have fast chains. I think we now need to work out how we have secure chains.โ
North Korean exploits are growing more sophisticated
โLazarus Group obtained about $2,000,000,000, in hack proceeds last year from DeFi and crypto. That is a non trivial amount, and the exploits here are getting far, far more sophisticated. So a part of this story is we could be doing better in terms of multisigs.โ
Institutionalization requires regulated curators and liability
โThe tough part there is they're not, you know, RIAs or whatever else. They don't have the extra level of accreditation, you know, that you maybe might want as a user in future. Like, when you have companies like Bitwise come into the bulk curation space.โ
Lending models are shifting to isolated risk pools
โAnd you have, like, the Cominos and the Morphos of the world who maybe started with a more, isolated markets or, modular approach to lending as opposed to, the more, you know, structured product of of a core. And there are trade offs to both. Right?โ
โIt's been a month for DeFi. 500,000,000 some 500,000,000 mostly between Drift and Kelp, but it's not great. Not great. You know what this reminds me of is do you guys remember it it just feels very reminiscent of the post FTX c five blow up.โ
โI think it's pretty clear that the driver of the let the next cycle or at least a big part of the story is gonna be different types of actual real world assets and people using it, like, RWA looping, this broader, trend. Shout out three f, small but proud bag holder there.โ
Conventional reservoirs offer higher porosity than shale
โConventional reservoirs have much higher porosity and permeability. They're actually much better reservoirs from a geologic standpoint. And so for the most part, you'll hear it in the industry parlance, those were the easy reservoirs to find. If you go back to like the 1920s, 1930s, drilling a field like the Yates field, which is kind of one of the most prolific oil fields, you were basically drilling a thousand feet into the ground vertically, and they were getting 400 to 500 to 1500 barrel a day IPs.โ
โNow we're the largest oil and gas producer in the world. We produce more oil than any company in any country in the world. And so it's kind of gone unnoticed. And so I wanted to kind of get out and bring that up.โ