MARKETS

“Iran has said it is willing to end the war permanently, but has issued a list of demands that look very much like a US surrender.”

“We are looking at market cycles that suggest the next major Bitcoin low won't hit until late 2026.”

“The IPO race for AI is more of a marathon than a sprint.”

“But this isn't about retribution. This is about preventing them from imposing their will on the Middle East and on US security interests in the Middle East for the next three, five or seven years. And in that case, I am okay with this conflict. We are achieving a lot of mission, but we haven't won.”

“The new white paper outlines how agencies must disclose their use of automated decision-making systems.”

“Eth, picking Eth actually has outperformed in last forty eight hours with around 6.7 to 7%, then Bitcoin jump, which is great because as you know, I won't call myself eat maxi, but I'm a big eat believer. Said that, I feel like this particular cycle has been very different than in the past cycles.”

“This legislation represents a generational investment in our nation's crumbling transit networks.”

“I am like, this is not the first time I feel like PolyMarkets has been PolyMarkets has been highlighting that there are multiple times when it comes to Trump administration, from his VP pick to then going into this genius act, to, like, multiple things, like, exactly before, doing the first missile into Iran, etcetera etcetera. We have been seeing this so called insider trading.”

“The latest jobs report suggests an economy that is still running hot.”

“Campaigns are ramping up their ground games as several states prepare to head to the polls this Tuesday.”

“Straight of Hormus remains choked. Global markets are on edge, and the risk of a wider conflict is growing by hour.”

“It was such a great question because the kindest thing was also my very, very, very first childhood memory. I was probably two and a half or three. It was probably 1957, something like that. And I was with my mother at this place called the Curb Market. And uh I got separated from my mother. And boy, you can imagine being 2 and 1/2 years old and separated from your mother. You just it's it's you're terror stricken. And this elderly black gentleman came up and I was sitting there balling my eyes out cuz I thought my mother had left me and said, "What's the matter, little boy?" And I said, "I lost my mama." And he said, "Here, don't you worry. we're going to find her."”

“The intensifying conflict in Iran is the primary driver behind current oil price swings.”

“The negative perception around AI is now worse than ICE... as electricity prices keep rising, they increasingly blame AI.”

“Market analysts are warning of potential volatility ahead of Monday's Consumer Price Index release.”

“She gives me a GP. The GP, a general practitioner. So she makes me go in. I see the guy and uh this guy's 83 years old. And I say to him, "You're living here in the land of the walking dead. Everyone here is basically fossilized. Um, what is the secret to longevity?" And he goes, "It's real simple. You retire, you die." And that had a really profound impact on me because I realized as I get older, and maybe when you get older, you will too. Boy, you better. If you don't use it, you're going to lose it.”

“But the business has changed some, so it's not just intermediation, which you're talking about, but there's a financing piece of it. Things like prime brokerage and where investment banks are providing loans to hedge funds, that has grown a lot. If you look at the segment disclosures, for example, and you look at the markets businesses and the size of the balance sheets of these businesses, they are growing quite a bit. And that tends to be a little bit more durable than the intermediation side.”

“The second is that we have combat air patrol, probably either two or four set slots, which means four or eight aircraft persistently overhead whenever we're convoying with F-15s, F-16s or F-18s equipped with what's called the Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System, APKWS, a cheap rocket, a $25,000 rocket that is extremely effective against the Shahed drones. It's used extensively by Ukraine and it's effective in a maritime environment.”

“No mediocre worker is safe. The bar for keeping your job just went up.”

“My mother used to always say, uh, and I think this is what this country really needs right now. You've just got to kill them with kindness. So, you're going to wake up someday it's going to be terrible. You're going to be in a bad mood. There's going to be something on TV that's going to make you angry. And particularly in these times right now, my gosh, when everyone wants to demonize the opposition, I think we've got to realize it doesn't have to be that way. We can humbly uh devote ourselves to finding the kindness within ourselves and the goodness within ourselves and transmit that to somebody else during that day. I think that's I think that's the secret to happiness.”

“2023 also saw the roots of a global banking crisis arise out of four American regional banks, the two largest being Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank. 2021's inflation surge moderated in 2023, while the Federal Reserve continued to raise its interest rates in the first half of the year.”

“The acquisition of TBPN reveals exactly where media is headed.”

“When Mundy first arrived in Georgia, she was kept apart from the other elephants by a fence. Carol Buckley, who cares for the animals here, says she wasn't sure how the others would react. But one of them, called Tara, took an interest right away. She picked up her food and brought it right over to the fence line here so she could be eating with Mundy.”

“Bitcoin is unequivocally the best inflation hedge that there is more than gold because Bitcoin is finite. There's only so much Bitcoin that can be mined. The problem with it is inflation hedge is if you got into kinetic exchange, there's clearly going to be cyber warfare and anything that you have to deal with electronically is going down, including Bitcoin. So, strike one. And then secondly, quantum computing. Who knows if and when with AI advancing as fast as it is that we may actually have quantum computing. Now quantum computing, someone can come in and can hack any bank and hack anything they want to.”

“The rise of artificial intelligence and large language models dominated not only the economy but has also been at the root of a Hollywood double strike conducted by Writers Guild of America and a SAG APTRA strike, these were part of a larger phenomenon of labor strikes across the country.”

“And I used to just sit there and rail on Warren Buffett year after year after year. And I would self-congratulate myself for trashing because goes, you know, he just happened to be in the right place at the right time and caught this bull market. And I was just thinking, "Oh my god, why couldn't I be Warren Buffett? Just believe in America." What I realize now is what an idiot I was. That guy is a flipping genius cuz he understood the power of compound interest which I somehow managed brilliantly to avoid my entire career. He understood it at nine. But anyway, if Warren, if you happen to hear this, I'm deeply apologetic. You are the OG of compound interest and I wish I was onetenth as as smart as you are.”

“Unemployment is really important here. As long as people are employed and wages are going up, they're spending. We hear a lot about the two-speed economy and the K-shaped economy. I think a better way to frame it is an E-shaped economy, where the high end is growing more, spending more than the low end. But there's no delta, there's no inflection in terms of the trends right now. There's not a worsening at the low end. It's kind of stable.”

“Software companies are realizing that charging per seat is a failing strategy in an AI-driven world.”

“Minnesota sued the Trump administration in March, accusing it of withholding evidence in the shootings. Anytime law enforcement takes the life of a community member, it's really important that there be a thorough and complete investigation.”

“The nuclear exit decision was driven by a single state election and backfired spectacularly on our energy security.”

“Trump calls on his allies in Europe along with Australia, Japan, and South Korea to help unblock the Strait by force. All of them refuse.”

“And if the Clarity Act passes without allowing yield-bearing stablecoins, has the banking lobby won? Kavita Gupta, founder and general partner at Delta Blockchain Fund, sits down with Steven Ehrlich to work through a week of whipsawing markets, fragile geopolitics, and structural shifts that could define where crypto goes from here.”

“Vice president JD Vance led The US delegation and says no agreement was reached. He says a major roadblock was Iran not agreeing to end their nuclear weapons program. In the Middle East, The US says two warships have passed through the hotly contested Strait Of Hormuz.”

“The emergence of STRC fixes the yield gap with price-stable returns for investors.”

“Iran rejects deadlines, refuses to reopen the straight for a temporary truce and doubts US commitment to a permanent ceasefire.”

“By using STRC, investors can finally fix the yield gap through more price-stable return mechanisms.”

“Oh we were so long cotton one weekend and uh there was a great drought, spectacular drought and of course it rained all through the belt over the weekend. Walk in market was limit down. He'd gotten absolutely smashed. I thought, "Oh my god, it's over." That day for lunch, his wife brought in four of her friends. He had the most beautiful office I've ever seen in my life. And he came out and just, oh my god, he had a smile on his face. Oh, ladies and flirting with the wives. I mean, I was in sitting there going, "Are you kidding me? This guy's just broke and he's acting like uh he's Rock Hudson or something." When the going gets tough, the tough get going.”

“Current market analysis suggests Bitcoin cycle lows are projected for late 2026.”

“Oil prices went from what was the high 115 116 to 94 today... it's an 18 or 20% drop off.”

“The dominant political story of the year has been the 270-day-long speakership of Representative Kevin McCarthy, whose slim majority in the House of Representatives has enabled a far-right rebellion to exert more weight over the lower chamber. The battle between the rebellious Freedom Caucus and McCarthy has been at the heart of an averted debt ceiling crisis.”

“Industry reports indicate that seat-based SaaS is facing a crisis as buying habits shift.”

“But I don't know how much of this is institutional waiting that they're putting money aside and let's bring in so much on ETF, which we saw, like, a huge amount of money coming into ETFs. I just really don't know how much was it wait and watch versus, oh, this is this is an asset we have to go in sort of a thing.”

“2023 also saw the roots of a global banking crisis arise out of four American regional banks, the two largest being Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank. 2021's inflation surge moderated in 2023, while the Federal Reserve continued to raise its interest rates in the first half of the year.”

“OpenAI and Anthropic are burning through cash at a staggering rate.”

“When you say are we in a bubble, I don't know if we're necessarily in a bubble. We're clearly so leveraged in equities in this country. We're so dependent upon firm equity prices at this point in time. And when I say leveraged, we're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. So 1929 we were I think at the top we were 65%. And then in 87 we got to about 85 or 90%. Then 2000 we got to 170% and now we're at 252. 35% on 250% of GDP is 80 90% of GDP the reverse wealth effect oh my gosh 10% of our tax revenues or capital gains they go to zero so you can see the budget deficit blowing up.”

“Historically high volatility has not been good for investment banking, but it has been good for sales and trading. But right now, we're hitting on all cylinders where trading results are really strong and benefiting from volatility, but it's not undermining deal-making. I think a lot of corporates have now come to the conclusion that volatility may be a feature of the system as opposed to a bug and have to continue investing and raising capital and doing deals.”

“Germany's total stock market cap is less than a single US company like Nvidia.”

“How Rheinmetall surpassed Volkswagen in market cap and what it signals about Europe's industrial reorientation.”

“And the fourth and the most important, the one that does not exist at this moment, is 10 to 14 large surface combatants. We know them as ages destroyers, like the Arleigh Burke class destroyers you're seeing on the TV, Launch of the Tomahawks. Those same ones have a great air defense system. They're the perfect escort ship. I think 10 to 14 of them is kind of the right number to at least get the initial choke, the 250 ships that are stuck on the inside the Gulf out.”

“David E. Sanger... explains what led to this last-minute deal and what it will take to make it stick.”

“And what my largest concern is that sometimes when the president says we won, the next words I have is about our cease operations. That would actually lead to a capital L loss for the United States and for our allies and partners because very quickly, we become clear to everyone that Iran remains in control of the Straits of Hormuz at this time. We have not yet established our control over that.”

“Emergency crews are on high alert as record rainfall is expected tonight.”

“Hospitals are diverting patients as digital systems remain offline following the breach.”

“The deepening Iran conflict creates extreme oil price volatility across global markets.”

“Major supporters of California representative Eric Swalwell's bid for governor are now withholding that support. The move comes following allegations that he sexually assaulted a woman twice, including once when she worked for him.”

“We have a special friend with us here as well, Colin Roche, who has done great work with finance, economics, and he's got strong opinions.”

“The dominant political story of the year has been the 270-day-long speakership of Representative Kevin McCarthy, whose slim majority in the House of Representatives has enabled a far-right rebellion to exert more weight over the lower chamber. The battle between the rebellious Freedom Caucus and McCarthy has been at the heart of an averted debt ceiling crisis.”

“We need to understand that the world has changed and the 2% NATO goal is now a floor, not a ceiling.”

“Experts argue that Hyperliquid's advantage is vertical integration within the ecosystem.”

“An immediate ceasefire followed by a final agreement within 15 to 20 days. If agreed, it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and pave the way for a permanent seize to conflict.”

“Now, on the trading side that you mentioned, yes, the war did help. I do think, though, that trading was already tracking—the markets businesses were already tracking to pretty good results even before the war. On average, I think you had 17% year-on-year growth overall. As you mentioned, equities was a particular standout. I think one of the big questions, though, as we go forward is how durable these results are, especially in markets.”

“Tier two is for ships from neutral countries like India, which can pass if they pay a toll, reportedly $2 million per vessel.”

“The central bank needs more evidence that inflation is heading toward two percent.”

“They're recovering from the trauma that they experienced living in captivity. And for them to open up and trust you while you are there with them, helping them work through it, it's indescribable.”

“Emergency management officials are asking residents to have multiple ways to receive warning alerts tonight.”

“In the earnings call, several of the CEOs struck a notably cautious tone as geopolitical uncertainty lingers. Jamie Dimon warned of wars, energy price volatility, trade uncertainty, large global fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon also pointed out heightened uncertainty in parts of private credit and the conflict in the Middle East. And Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser warned that one great first quarter does not a full year make.”

“The switch to solid-state chemistry could fundamentally change the economics of transportation.”

“The Kaiser Sose principle says the other side has to think that you're 1% crazier than they are so that they become nervous.”

“Bunker Hunt was squeezing silver at the time and he bought about 200 million ounces at an average price of about three 12 bucks. And between 1976 and 1980, we had crazy monetary policy. Inflation started ripping and silver went literally through the roof. So at 50 bucks now, he's worth about 11 billion and he's got a multiple of five or six on the next closest guy. So anyway, they made liquidation only. Silver collapsed. It went from 50 bucks to under 10 bucks in the space of about eight weeks. And that had a searing impact on me to see him go from the richest guy to virtually bankrupt in the short space of six or seven weeks.”

“The Iran war is a major wildcard for the global economic outlook.”

“Germany for quite a while enjoyed the so-called peace dividend, keeping defense spending at around 1% of our GDP.”

“The one thing that I think should be part of this next election the simplest most important thing that we can do is we can demand that all AI is watermarked. That's the single most transformative thing that we could possibly do for the country, for the world. Make it a felony if someone knowingly violates that three times and put them in jail. I want to know what's authentically human and what's not. And when that happens, talk about restoring trust in the country, which I think is one of the biggest problems.”

“I have long maintained that better than a business school degree. Journalism 101 should be mandatory subject in every college which is newspaper writing in particular. What newspaper writing does is it teach teaches you you have to write where the conclusion comes first. So unlike writing something and then at the end we get the story here the end comes first and you have to write it with this incredibly rigid discipline so that every succeeding thing that you write the most important part is in the first sentence of the first paragraph. There's that old saying, if you can't tell your story in 15 seconds or less, no one's going to listen.”

“Mediators warned that failure could spark destructive retaliation across Gulf infrastructure and send global economy in a tail spin.”

“I'm not going to be thinking about the 87 crash or or Bitcoin. I'm going to be thinking about who I loved and who loved me. That's what I'm going to be thinking about and what kind of relationships we had and what kind of times we had. I think the professional aspects are these great tools that allow you to do more meaningful things and the things that count which is what have you done with your family? What have you done with your friends? How have you served others? What have you done to leave a legacy of uh happiness and betterment and goodness to the people that you've been privileged enough to come in contact with?”

“Delegations have returned home after the latest ceasefire negotiations failed to produce an agreement.”

“The biggest problem with AI is that if you think about the the way AI is being deployed, practiced and deployed right now is the it's the build break iterate model. Build it, break it, fix it and iterate. If you think about it, that's been the invention model since the beginning of man. Build, break, iterate. But we've never been in a situation where the tail event the break can do so much damage could could be hundreds of millions if not billions of lives. When I was able to ask them pointedly how do you think that AI safety gets resolved the pretty much the consensus answer is I think we'll finally do something about it when 50 or 100 million people die in an accident.”

“Elephants are intelligent and social. They especially respond to reunions, the birth of a new calf, or the death of a loved one. They're capable of complex emotions, and Buckley says they're sensitive to what's happening around them. They feel all the vibration and energy that comes into their area, which is one of the reasons we're not open to the public.”

“Elephants are intelligent and social. They especially respond to reunions, the birth of a new calf, or the death of a loved one. They're capable of complex emotions, and Buckley says they're sensitive to what's happening around them.”

“The reason Hyperliquid is winning is because they've vertically integrated their entire stack.”

“I feel like this particular cycle has been very different than in the past cycles of every time we have a world political situation or the economy situation moving in. We have seen crypto going down. But right now, we are in a sort of a cease file... the first impact is on crypto market as soon as the oil prices went down or expected to go down.”

“China since 1949, since the communists took over, has a track record of never ever ever helping in any international organization or environment. They're cheap skates at the United Nations when it comes to paying bills. I mean, we may not pay our bill but at least we volunteer to have a big bill. On top of it, they don't untreat the security anywhere in the world.”

“The rise of artificial intelligence and large language models dominated not only the economy but has also been at the root of a Hollywood double strike conducted by Writers Guild of America and a SAG APTRA strike. These were part of a larger phenomenon of labor strikes across the country, in which such large diverse groups, such as Teamsters and Auto Workers, won new contracts.”

“Victor, Christina, and Jeremy, we are we are bonded forever, and no one down here is ever gonna know what the four of us just went through. And it was the most special thing that will ever happen in my life.”

“Oil spikes over $120 per barrel, the highest since the outbreak of the Ukraine war as Iran's energy attacks begin to bite.”

“Americans are increasingly saying they won't pay their taxes this year as a political protest. Here's what could happen to them.”

“If there is no deal, we are going to hit each and every one of their electric generating plants very hard and probably simultaneously.”

“The defense department says two navy guided missile destroyers passed through the Strait Of Hormuz as the critical water passageway has become a key landmark in the ongoing conflict. US central command said that The US forces had begun setting conditions to clear Iranian sea mines planted throughout the waterway.”

“WSJ’s Damian Paletta explains how the fragile cease-fire came together, why there are still many unanswered questions and what comes next.”