Kalshi blocks politicians from trading before orders execute
βAnd then the last layer that we do, and we're the only ones that do this, even the stock market doesn't do it, is that for some classes of users, you're not even able to try to trade. So we block it from the start. So for example, politicians, if you try to trade on your markets, you're not even gonna go through, which no one does that. In the stock market, you trade, and then they try to figure out what's gonna happen.β
Don't listen to experts, they're just people like you
βAnd he told us, like, don't listen to the experts. They're people just like you. Whatever they're experts on, you can become an expert on as well, and they're just people. Everyone that's done anything that's impressive is just a person just like you. It's not that different. And I think it really ties a lot of how I think about things. It's like, at the end of the day, you should just believe in yourself and take risk, especially if you're younger.β
βWell, I'm we're unfortunately not fifty fifty yet. I hope to get there we hope to get there soon. I think it's around, like, almost 30% woman, though, which is a lot higher than if you look at bro like, other brokerages and all the similar platforms. It's a lot higher. And we've been talking to a lot of women, and I think that the big the thesis that we have right now of why the hypothesis of why that's happening is because we have so many more markets that women and other kind of not just women.β
Suing the U.S. government one month before the election
βAll we could do is we're gonna decide if we're gonna sue the government to be able to bring these markets. And that was a very hard decision. I love risk. I'm a risk taker. My cofounder is really not. He hates risks. And we ended up winning one month before the election. And we had one month, and I remember that conversation we had with everyone in the office. It was like, guys, it's gonna be the most intense month of our lives, and we have to just, like, literally give every single thing that we have to grow this market.β
βSo I was a freshman in college, and I got an email saying the MIT Bitcoin Club, I think was the name, or Bitcoin Lab, had a $100 of Bitcoin of anyone that would just, like, sign up to Coinbase. There were three wallets, and it was just, like, Coinbase and just redeem your $100 in Bitcoin. That I think was, like, point three of a Bitcoin at the time. And I was, like, a freshman in college. I had no money. I was like, oh, yes. I'm gonna get this a $100 and see who he goes. And then I lost my password. So very good because I didn't sell.β
65 lawyers said suing the government was impossible
βSounds like the problem here is regulatory. Seems like there's some legal issue in The US. So we're like, alright. We're gonna solve this legal issue. There's spreadsheet of 65 names of lawyers. You take 32, you take 33, and just call everyone. And in one day, we called the entire list, and not a single one of these lawyers said that this was doable. They were like, well, it is CFTC jurisdiction, but they were never gonna let you do it. Don't waste your time.β
Federal Reserve found Kalshi beats economists at forecasting
βAnd there was actually this very interesting paper by the Federal Reserve, talking about how cow sheet markets are better at forecasting macroeconomic trends than economists Bloomberg and even the Fed itself. Well, I believe that. All those PhDs at the Fed, they have got it wrong. They clearly have.β
βAnd I think that ballet is very good at this because it teaches you that failing is completely normal. Like, you're only gonna get to do, like, the three pirouettes or whatever, the three turns if you try to do one and you fail a 100,000 times, and then you get to one, and then you get to two. And being okay with the concept of, like with ballet, you're trying, and the downside is actually pretty bad because if you fall, you hurt yourself, you might break your foot or something.β
Hiring fancy execs early cost a year of product velocity
βBut on the other side, I think we've done a lot of mistakes with hiring that I would have gone back and being like, don't worry about execs and hiring execs. Hire the best like, empower the very good people that you have even if they are, like, out of college, and really focus on building a great culture with your core people. And I think we would maybe have saved, like, a year of product velocity if we had just, like, not hired the wrong people and focus exclusively on product versus everything else.β