AI washing gives cover for layoffs that aren't really about AI
βI think the term now is called AI washing, which Scott's why I talked a lot about, where, let's say you overhired or you made some mistakes and you have to lay off a few thousand people or whatever it is. If you blame it on AI, then you seem like you're, on it and savvy and just doing what the business requires, and you didn't make a mistake in the past.β
Don't trust tech CEOs who publicly ask to be regulated
βAndrew, I trust your intentions. I'm gonna try and be delicate about this. You're talking about a group of people that would fuck their sister for a nickel. And we fall this we fall for this shit literally every couple years. We have a new hero who says regulate me in hush tones in a t shirt, Sam Altman. Or we should be worried about the future, income inequality, Jeff Bezos, UBI. And then they deploy thousands of lawyers to get in the way of any regulation.β
βI had breakfast with a major company CEO who said his revenues have gone up threefold, and he has cut 30% of his staff, and it's gonna get much, much worse. He says the more people I cut, the better we're gonna do. Publicly traded company, rich as balls. The CEO I had breakfast with who's freaking out, he said three words summarize the situation. Capital displaces labor. And then he put in parentheses with the help of AI.β
College grad unemployment now exceeds non-college unemployment for first time
βCollege grads, the the unemployment rate for for for recent college grads is historically very, very high. And perhaps even more interestingly, the unemployment rate for college grads is now higher than for non college grads, and that never used to be the case. And I feel like that is relevant because, I mean, we say the young people are the canary in the coal mine. When it comes to AI, I feel like the more relevant thing to say is that young college grads are the canary in the coal mine because that's the area of work where AI can actually have an impact.β
Silicon Valley CEOs privately admit AI will gut their workforces
βI have private conversations with people all the time as I think you guys do too. And one of the convos I relate to people was with a CEO of a publicly traded tech company who told me flat out, we're gonna fire 15% of workers this year. We're gonna fire another 20% two years from now, another twenty percent two years later. His direct quote was I have no idea what my kids are gonna do, because his kids actually see what he's doing and were like, oh, I don't wanna try and work for that company.β
Government retraining programs have only 0-15% efficacy rates
βWhen I looked up the studies as to how effective government funded retraining programs were, and the efficacy range I found was zero to 15% with 15% on the high side. What happened in Michigan was that an enterprising soul started a school to certify all these laid off manufacturing workers and business skills, collected the government money, and then shut down. And everyone had these valueless certificates, and it didn't do shit.β
A negative income tax could replace UBI as a viable policy
βWe called it the freedom dividend because it tested better, Scott. And we did run various numbers on various policies. I will say to you, not surprising, that while I was championing universal basic income and still do and believe in it, if we wound up with a negative income tax, I would be pumped because that would alleviate poverty at scale. It's that you have a certain, certain threshold. Let's call it $35,000 or the poverty level or or wherever you wanna set it. And if you make less than that, then we true you up to that level of it.β
Yang's 13-year-old son wants an AI girlfriend instead of a human one
βMy 13 year old has come to me and my wife and said, I think I'm gonna have an AI girlfriend, not a human girlfriend. And then we were terrified and said, why? And he says, because it's gonna be a lot easier, and I don't think I can get a human girlfriend. Now my son is on the autism spectrum, but I think that he's very honest. We've been having him watch Love on the Spectrum of Netflix to try and boost him to the fact that maybe he can get a human girlfriend.β