The growth of private credit is a stabilizing evolution rather than a systemic threat because it removes the asset-liability mismatch that triggered the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.
βThis wonβt be the next GFC because the holders of the risk don't have the same asset-liability mismatch as the banks did in 2008; they have long-term capital to match long-term assets.β
Guest: Alan Waxman, Co-Founder and CEO of Sixth Street.
βAlan thinks about the financial system the way a historian would, studying the incentives, guardrails, and market structure that determine how things play out.β
Modern finance has entered 'System 3,' a post-Basel III era where banks act as regulated utilities while private markets handle the economy's high-velocity risk.
βBasel III and Dodd-Frank created System 3, effectively moving the risk-taking from the banking system to the investment system, making it perhaps the best system we've ever had.β
The 'Factory Model' has industrialized the investment world, shifting the focus toward the relentless gathering of liabilities and deployment of assets to drive Fee-Related Earnings (FRE).
βThe factory model is the industrialization of liability-gathering and asset deployment that is the root cause of everything happening in private markets today.β
AI is poised to accelerate a wave of 'creative destruction' that will require a flexible, private-market-driven financial system to fund the rapid transition of the global economy.
βAI, creative destruction, and the resulting opportunity require a flexible financial system that can adapt to new technological realities faster than traditional bank balance sheets.β