EXPECT DEFLATION

“Bitcoin is the only asset that exists outside of this credit-based system. It doesn't rely on someone else's promise to pay, which makes it the ultimate life raft in a world where credit is contracting. When the credit system fails, people will rush into the only hard asset that isn't someone else's liability.”

“We have reached the end of the debt supercycle where every new dollar of debt produces less than a dollar of economic output. In this environment, the natural state is deflationary because the burden of servicing that debt sucks the oxygen out of the room, preventing any real expansion of the currency in the private sector.”

“When people talk about inflation, they usually look at the CPI, but that's just a basket of goods. True inflation is the expansion of the money supply, and if you look at the credit markets, we are actually seeing a contraction of credit that outweighs the printing at the central bank level. This is why people get the inflation story so wrong; they look at the wrong metrics.”

“The Fed wants you to believe they have a printing press that can solve everything, but they only deal in reserves, which aren't the same as money circulating in the real economy. They can't force banks to lend, and they can't force people to borrow if there's no productive use for that capital, so the growth remains stagnant regardless of policy.”

“Demographics are destiny when it comes to the velocity of money. As the population ages, they consume less and save more, which is a massive headwind for any inflationary pressures the government tries to manufacture. You cannot have a high-inflation environment when your largest demographic block is entering their sunset years.”

“The long-term trend for interest rates is down, not up, because the global economy can no longer support high rates without a total collapse of the financial system. We might see temporary spikes, but the gravity of the debt load will always pull rates back toward zero or even negative territory in the coming decade.”