Code provides transparency without government intervention
βYou can go into the code, and you can actually see what they can do and what they can't do. You can see if they want to, they can issue a trillion coins. And you know if you're invested in that, you are investing that. What we're talking about now is the balance of how much do we want to allow people to buy what they wanna buy.β
Gensler potentially weaponized meme coins against alts
βI actually think that him opening the door to allow people to invest in meme coins was intentional to try to, you know, kinda push out, you know, the shit to basically collapse the altcoin market in the end. I actually think that that was intentional. They issued guidance that says meme coins are not securities. He did help the alt industry, you know, kind of self-emulate.β
Anthropic's Mythos model is mostly masterful fear-based marketing
βI think this is incredible marketing for Anthropic. It reminded me of, like, y two k, for those that remember, which was a big nothing burger. When Claude released Mythos or announced the release of it, even that's disputed by it. Some say it doesn't even exist. Claude back to Kaizo Sose. Mythos is a Kaizo Sose. They're they're dealing mythology. They've got this legendary concept, and they're, selling it from fear.β
Crypto entrepreneurs chase shiny objects instead of real problems
βI would start with pain points and problems. The main issue with the category from an entrepreneurial perspective is that people keep chasing the shiny object. We're gonna tokenize stocks and take out BlackRock. As opposed to say, for example, we've got this $5,000,000,000,000 asset class called private credit, and people can't get real time measurement of delinquency, non accruals, payments, loan performance data, credit quality. It's crying out for a solution. We gotta get out of Star Trek future and say, what are the problems today with banks and credit and money movement?β
βThese problems happen because of a lack of regulation. You know? Not all regulation is bad. A lot of it is. A lot of regulation is written by the companies to create motes and competitive weapons for them, but basic disclosure sort of rules are good. And without clarity, this is exactly the sort of thing that would happen.β
MicroStrategy faces a dangerous asset-liability mismatch
βMicroStrategy is a capital markets issuance machine. It is almost like a ninth wonder of the world. They've got all these tranches, like stretch, STRC, and STRF, where they have an a contractual obligation to pay out billions of dividends. They have an obligation to make those payments, but the assets don't generate free cash flow. The only way, at some point in the future, they'll be able to generate the cash to deliver to those bondholders is by selling their common stock. That's called dilution.β
Apple may benefit more from AI than AI companies themselves
βHilariously, the name I remain the longest in terms of benefiting from AI is Apple. Right? Because they're just gonna use somebody else's and sell it, and they've got all the devices, so you're gonna have to play by their terms. I still don't remain totally certain that these companies aren't incinerating huge amounts of CapEx that they will never get back and that the end value will ultimately be in the hands of the consumers.β
Hyperliquid is quietly winning by enabling 24/7 markets
βI think Hyper Liquid could be a winner of this cycle, by the way. That's my exposure to crypto primarily today. I think they're taking share from incumbents. They've got good execution. They got the $24.07 trading. Hyper Liquid has been the manifestation of twenty four seven markets. When the talks broke down, I look at what the S and P contract was doing. So you can it's unlocked twenty four seven markets, for the really, for the first time.β
Most retail interest in crypto arrives at exact market tops
βMost interest in crypto happens at all time highs and they're tops, by the way. So I don't know that there's much signal from the perceptions that are being shared out there. It's almost all the time. It's the most interest shows up at the exact worst time. People are running for the hills at the best time. There's very limited interest right now, which is you know, that's contrary and constructive.β
CENTCOM's blockade timing was a brilliant tactical squeeze on Iran
βI do think this move by CENTCOM over the weekend was just clever, if not brilliant. It was exquisitely timed moving these destroyers through the Strait Of Hormuz during these negotiations when the IRGC can't even convene to formulate a policy. So if you take a step back, Iran was able to close the straight up from Moose through what I call the Kaiser Sose maneuver. If you guys have seen Usual Suspects, the guy is, like, everywhere and nowhere. What CENTCOM just did to introduce another meme was the I am the captain me now. Like, this is my straight now.β
World Liberty Financial exposes crypto's good, bad, and ugly
βI think what this whole tiff has shown, it truly highlighted the good, the bad, and the ugly of crypto that we've seen for a very long time. The good news is is that, generally speaking, our markets are pretty transparent. The bad thing is that in the crypto markets, we've seen plenty of conflicts of interest over the years. And then the ugly is, like, all the crypto Twitter, like, screaming at each other, which does not create the best conditions for a project who's trying to appeal to institutional investors.β
βThe other people, I don't think, were aware that the pool is, you know, 93% collateralized, but effectively by one entity. This is about the fact that that the entire DeFi ecosystem has enormous issues that are undisclosed to people who participate in it. And this is going to be meat to the lions on the regulatory side because it is exactly the sort of thing that good regulators care about.β
βMy primary concern when I saw the news break was that this is going to put this potential legislation in protracted debate now about the things that we all have worried would be the killers of this bill, including now really having a case to box Trump in on an ethics clause in this thing. I am concerned it's gonna give the opportunity for people who don't wanna see crypto adoption to kill this bill.β