Agents will bypass traditional retail apps entirely
βLong term, there's really mind melting questions like, what is an app if your agent can grab everything behind the hood that your app used to grab for you? Do you need to use the Amazon app? Maybe the Amazon app sucks compared to just asking your agent to do all the homework, read all the reviews, show me the pictures I care about. You know what I like. Isn't that better?β
Enterprise sales teams are friction agents will avoid
βI have always felt like if I can't see the pricing and I can't see a way to get an API key with my credit card, I don't care. Like, I just I'm closing the tab. I just don't care anymore. I don't wanna talk to you. I don't wanna talk to the sales team. I don't wanna do an email. I don't care. Like, I'm not because having to set aside time to talk to the enterprise sales team is a huge commitment and a huge slowdown, and I don't even know if this thing works yet.β
Instant settlement eliminates merchant credit risk for agents
βIf you are buying goods and services over the Internet and you have month end settlement, whether that's invoice with a wire or credit card, you as a merchant are extending credit to the client or or the agent. In agent land, you generally don't know who the agent is. They don't know when the end of the month comes around if you're actually gonna pay. Instant settlement just fixes this. Right? Instant settlement's like cash. If I have it, I can hand it to you, and then you have it.β
The distraction-based internet business model is dying
βThe business model for the Internet to boil it down was distraction, was that if you as a human viewer went and were consuming content, whether that was about information or recipes or sports scores or or something else in the course of your business, you would get distracted. But the thing that happened with the advent of agents is that people are moving their search information retrieval and then execution into agents. Agents don't get distracted. If they land on your site to find your cookie recipe, they're not gonna see your ads for shoes that you might purchase. And so the publisher is not gonna get any any benefit from it, and there will need to be a new contract.β
AI agents automate intent formation and preference modeling
βWhat these agents do, you could say that they have solved the intent formation part of the problem and maybe some even part of the preference modeling part of the problem of commerce. So you tell it a thing. It kinda knows what you wanna do and it can map that to some tools. It can map that to some networks and to some services. That's the intent formation part. And it can kind of do some preference modeling too through conversation and memories. It can kinda get a sense of what you prefer. And it can take that and impart that will onto tools and software and vendors and services.β
Headless merchants prioritize APIs over human interfaces
βWhen I think about, you know, what does a headless merchant look like? It's really something that is more service towards the AI rather than to the actual humans themselves. And so rather than having a physical or or a digital storefront that you go and website and that you navigate, It's really just simply an API endpoint and really good documentation that your model can perceive and interpret and then ultimately use.β
βFor this new type of goods and services, stablecoins are quite good. So the the average thing bought by agent cash is between 1 and 2Β’. Spend about 600,000 things bought, goods and services bought in this way. Once 2Β’, credit cards have a fixed transaction fee of 30Β’. Really hard to say what ACH and wire is, but it's, like, kinda closer to a dollar. And then marginal fees of two to 3%.β
The AI mullet uses cards upfront and stablecoins behind
βI think the outcome would be it's kind of the AI mullet. Right? You have cards on the front and stablecoins on the back where consumers are spending from their card and their balance, but ultimately, the merchants are getting settled in stablecoins on a x four or two or an MPP, and I think that would would combine a lot of the great qualities of both.β