Tech competition now resembles professional sports, not amateur hour
βI've been using the analogy lately of tech competition feels much more like professional sports now than it ever did. Maybe over the 2010s, it was more like D1 sports, and maybe before that, it was more like high school sports. It is optimized to a degree that it was almost unfathomable a decade ago, and that's at every level. That's at the engineering level, that's at the product level, that's at the company building level, that's at the venture level. There's really no pocket where you can say, wow, this is really amateur hour.β
Time-locked vaults could neutralize physical coercion attacks
βWhat we really want is to set up a situation where the Bitcoin just can't actually move right away. We think that velocity is one of the best possible tools that we can give people. Meaning that in some of the attacks and and in in almost all of the attacks, I think that that Jameson is is crying. They're less than twenty four hours. Their attacker showed up, and, you know, they weren't putting themselves at risk trying to hold people hostage for a week or a month. And so a lot of our focus is on how can we provide a really safe and easy to use time lock capability that would allow people to set some parameters around how fast their Bitcoin can move.β
βI feel like I have a public service announcement to deliver. And that public service announcement is that Silicon Valley is the center of the tech universe. There was a period of time where people thought that that either was not true or was no longer going to be true. And that is incorrect. Austin is great. Miami is great. They are not even casting a shadow on Silicon Valley in terms of tech innovation and where companies are being started.β
Wrench attacks are accelerating globally and remain unsolved
βAnd I think we see that with both the the attacks that we've seen in France and also lots of the attacks we started to see in The United States. It feels like there's an acceleration. I think pretty clear there is one and, Jameson Lopes, you know, chronicling of all of these, of course, can help help put some of the numbers behind that. We think that, you know, even if you're holding a lot of Bitcoin, most people there's a lot more important things in life that are sudden if they're suddenly threatened, like, it doesn't matter what kind of practicing you did with lying about your balance or, you know, hoping an attacker hadn't done their research beforehand.β
βI generally don't like the advice of follow your passion. I've never really liked that advice because I found that many people I know have amazing passions that are terrible businesses and they're able to apply the exact same like enthusiasm and energy to things that are much better uses of their time. So I feel like maybe, you know, enjoy your passions, but not necessarily follow them professionally.β
Investors will never proactively raise founder compensation
βI've basically come to the consensus that investors, and this is probably my maybe most controversial statement, but investors will never approach a founder about paying them more money. In my entire career, I can think of it less than five times that it happened. It is just not top of mind on the investors' tasks to do. And I actually don't think it's like bad intentions or malice. I think it's just not in the regular course of business things that come across investors' desks.β
Selling your company to start an AI company violates the founder code
βSomebody called me and said, specifically, I'm selling the company, and it was a company that was doing performing quite well. And they told me they were selling for half their valuation. And I was shocked because this is actually one of our best investments that we've made over the past like three or four years. Companies doing well, growing fast... And then I was like, oh, so it sounds like you're giving up, right? Like you would only sell your company for half of the valuation if you were giving up. And the founder said, yeah, I'm going to go start an AI company.β
QSBS makes seed gains up to $10M federally tax-free
βQSBS is basically a tax paradigm in the United States where if you invest in a startup that meets a certain amount of criteria, I believe the criteria used to be 50 million in value. It had to be less than 50 million in value. It has recently changed to less than 75 million in value. And you had to hold that investment for originally five years. And now there's like a proration period during that five years. But if you met that criteria, then you paid no federal taxes at all.β
Pipedream was named after a CTO dismissed the idea
βWhen I picked the name Pipedream, there were a few people that said, you can't name your name Pipedream because you're saying it's like a fantastical thought, therefore it's impossible for it to come into existence. But the true story is we had a meeting at Chime where we were sharing what we were working on and the CTO of the company basically said, I mean, it sounds interesting, but I think it's a Pipedream. That was kind of his response to our business. I didn't honestly, I don't think I really understood that time by the way that it's actually a drug reference.β
Bitkey's new hardware wallet adds a screen for on-device verification
βWell, I think this was the biggest point of feedback at the old BitK that I always got. There's no screen. Like, I need to be able to verify the receive address or the seven address. And I think you guys did an incredible job, answering that question of, like, when when screen, and if so, how? I mean, it takes up the the full bottom of the wallet.β
Seed investing delivers the highest annualized returns in venture
βI mean, I think fundamentally seed investing has always had the highest annualized returns of any asset class with Inventure. And so it's where everyone would like to put the majority of their capital if they could. And obviously the reason is because you're investing earliest at the lowest price and you get the largest ownership for the smallest check. And so if you can get in the marquee companies, then it's the single best place to be.β
First-generation AI companies are the most vulnerable to disruption
βI'm a little concerned for what I call like the first generation AI companies. And that's basically like companies that were built on top of the models, and they were building feature sets where the models didn't have capabilities. And the argument was, oh, as the model gets better, my product will just get better. And that was the sort of shared thesis of many of these companies. And I actually thought it made a lot of sense... I think what people didn't fully appreciate, and I definitely didn't appreciate, was that the acceleration and the capability of these models would actually start like, if you think of it as concentric circles from the core, they would just start eating these adjacent concentric circles faster and faster.β
Bitkey buyers often purchase multiples to gift to family
βWe've been doing the key giveaways for, I think, over a year now, TFTC, and that is the number one use case the winner uses it for. They say, hey. I've got one already. I'm gonna give it to my my dad or uncle who hasn't moved it off the exchange yet. We saw people buying five, ten plus big keys and gifting them to others and and saying to that person that they've been, you know, talking about getting off the exchange with, there's finally something that you could use to do this.β
Chaincode delegation removes privacy trade-offs in collaborative custody
βAnd with Chaincode delegation, we wanted to take a huge step, really for Vicky, but also for the industry in terms of the that type of trade off. We wanted to be possible to get the benefits of leaning on somebody to hold a third key for you, all the recovery and safety benefits while not having the same privacy downsides. And so Chaincode delegation, uses some relatively deep cryptographic magic. Basically, to, to to to make it so that, Viki servers aren't sitting there with that output or with that descriptor of the wallet, knowing the balance, knowing the history.β
Recovery edge cases are the invisible complexity of self-custody
βThe the thing I'd highlight here is that the set of things that can happen to people when they're self custodying their coins is unbelievably large. Like, maybe you lose your phone, you lose and you lose your hardware. But then they start to get to things like, what if I lose both? And we have a recovery contact solution for that. They get to questions like, what happens if Blocko's out of business, and is it making Viki anymore? And we have our emergency exit kit for that. The team has spent so much time looking closely at making all of those flows rebut really robust.β
βFirst of all, the best investments I've made at seed, the majority of them have actually ended up being pivots, meaning that the company I invested at the time, if I had hired BCG and done a month of diligence on the company, the results of that research would have been irrelevant because what actually worked out from the company was a completely different business model later. It's not all of them, of course, but it is the majority, which sort of surprised me. And so I think that that just calls into question, like, what is the decision-making process to make a seed investment?β
SaaS companies are mispriced β but direction is unclear
βThe only thing I know for certain is that software companies are completely mispriced. What I don't know is are they completely mispriced and massively overvalued? Or are they completely mispriced and massively undervalued? Because the current value of the software company is basically a probability that in 10 years things go really bad for them. And so if they do go bad, then the companies are overvalued. And if they don't go bad, then the companies are undervalued.β
Merchants lose 20-30% of profits to 3% card network fees
βSo when a seller uses fiat accepts fiat payments, there's a 3% fee taken by the networks. And on the consumer side, you typically see that, you know, maybe on a receipt, you are, like, upset about the fee that you got charged or maybe you see a sign at a merchant, you know, tacking on a fee. But the thing I like to bring this back to is that for a business that maybe on a great day makes 15% margin, and maybe on a medium day is a 10 margin and maybe has some bad days, 3%, we just talked about 20 to 30% of their profits. That 3% is computed on the ticket size, not their profits.β
Seed phrases are a vulnerability during physical attacks
βYeah. And actually on that topic, one thing we realized while we were looking at this is that Viki might be uniquely suited to design for it. And the reason for that is actually one that I think is a little bit controversial, which is that Vicky doesn't use seed phrases. And the re the reason it's uniquely suited to rent or tax is because in that setting, seed phrases are a vulnerability. They're too they're too instant. They're too portable. Like, somebody can take and leave with this, and it's very hard to protect it.β