Bitcoin has likely already bottomed for this cycle
βI'll put my neck out on the line here and say that the next time I see you, Bitcoin will be significantly higher. ... I believe we've had a massive distribution of which makes sense. And I think eventually when it when it breaks higher this time, I don't think it's gonna stop.β
TBPN rebranded from Technology Brothers to land public company CEOs
βThe other reason we did it is at that point we were shifting from just being the two of us talking to doing guests and we wanted the aesthetics of being, like, a cable network because we wanted to go and get these, like, public company CEOs on. If you're trying to get a public company CEO, some of them, the really founder mode ones, you just talk, DM with, text, and take jump on. But a lot of them, there's, like, layers of of, people in the communications department, that that you're kind of, like, needing to gain their trust. And so, like, by having the optics of being, like, a network, even though we are just a podcast, we are able to, you know, end up getting a lot of those guests.β
Herbicide Picloram linked to rising early-onset colon cancer
βThey then took that piclorum exposure, and then they looked at all the counties across the United States. They were able to gather data where there's enough data in California, Connecticut, Georgia, Iowa, New Mexico, Utah, Washington, and they were able to look at piclorum use estimates from the Pesticide National Synthesis Project and try and deduce in places where piclorum was highly used and not highly used, and once again, it elucidated signal, which is that when piclorum was used in the environment in the counties more frequently, there was a much higher frequency of colon cancer in those counties. The odds ratio is like 3X. It's very strong.β
HubSpot's SaaS selloff is overblown given its liquid equity
βHubSpot, I think they peaked around $908,150 dollars a share, went down. I think the low recently was $200. HubSpot does $3,000,000,000 in revenue with a 14,000,000,000 market cap. Okay? I think that is insane. They're projecting to do 3,700,000,000 in '26. So you're buying a a, subscription software company that I don't think people are going to tear out of their of their business at something like three x revenue. Like, everyone talks about, like, all the nerds on Twitter, which I'm one of them, are talking about, like, building their own CRMs. But a roofing company with 20 employees in Tennessee, they ain't gonna be doing it anytime soon.β
Trump supports AI data center power generation autonomy
βPresident Trump just wants the country to win and be successful. And he doesn't have these like doomer neuroses about it. That's not to say we don't support any regulation at all, but we should have specific solutions for specific problems as opposed to being cowering in fear over this and just trying to halt all progress. And I think a really good example of that was his idea around data centers where he said over a year ago, before data centers even became a hot political topic, that we should let our AI companies stand up their own power generation behind the meter. And that's a much better approach than the Bernie Sanders approach of just shutting everything down.β
Trump supports AI data center power generation autonomy
βPresident Trump just wants the country to win and be successful. And he doesn't have these like doomer neuroses about it. That's not to say we don't support any regulation at all, but we should have specific solutions for specific problems as opposed to being cowering in fear over this and just trying to halt all progress. And I think a really good example of that was his idea around data centers where he said over a year ago, before data centers even became a hot political topic, that we should let our AI companies stand up their own power generation behind the meter. And that's a much better approach than the Bernie Sanders approach of just shutting everything down.β
SaaS debt bubbles are bursting for private equity firms
βThe underlying problem is that these businesses in the SaaS space where you're driven by net new sales every year, how many new customers are you signing up and then you're trying to manage retention and you're trying to increase sell-through and retain customers, they're just having a really hard time sourcing new customers and there's probably higher than model attrition. When you have a very kind of typically historically predictable business, where you can say, hey, I've got a net revenue retention of 118% or what have you, meaning I'm selling into my install base by 18% over what I'm making last year and then I'm signing up new customers, you can lever that business, right? You can borrow money against those cash flows because it becomes predictable. And what's happened in the last year in particular is agents have become so good and so fast and so cheap that many enterprises can simply spin up an alternative to a vertical SaaS solution.β
Shift portfolios from digital abundance to physical scarcity
βEvery week every week, it starts with a gigantic Gemini produced or or nano banana produced visual of scarcity and abundance. Everyone who's watched it knows. It's like get out of anything that is abundant and only be invested in things that are scarce. That's it.β
Column's founder bought a bank for $60M with his own money
βColumn bank. The founder of Plaid, his new company called column is basically, like it's a fintech company. So it's a bank. He actually bought a bank for, I think, $60,000,000 of his own money. And then he started this, and he basically uses it as a the the underlying bank under Mercury, under Ramp, under Brex, under all these companies. In 2026, they're doing 200,000,000 in revenue. He owns all of it. He never raised any money.β
SpaceX acquires AI coding startup Cursor for $60 billion
βThe acquisition was essentially negotiated, and the way that it's structured is so that the S1 doesn't go stale. So I think the way that it was announced has more to do with the fact that they don't want to slow down and have to rewrite parts of the S1, have to redo the disclosures, have to redo the risks. So I think what you're going to see is that this will get done. In fact, the deal is effectively done. But what's so smart is that where is SpaceX today? Let's call it a trillion. Where could it be? Just for the purpose of this argument, let's say two trillion. So when the deal gets done on a stock for stock basis, it's going to be, again, if it's $60 billion in tomorrow dollars, effectively Elon's gotten a 50% discount.β
Herbicide Picloram linked to rising early-onset colon cancer
βThey then took that piclorum exposure, and then they looked at all the counties across the United States. They were able to gather data where there's enough data in California, Connecticut, Georgia, Iowa, New Mexico, Utah, Washington, and they were able to look at piclorum use estimates from the Pesticide National Synthesis Project and try and deduce in places where piclorum was highly used and not highly used, and once again, it elucidated signal, which is that when piclorum was used in the environment in the counties more frequently, there was a much higher frequency of colon cancer in those counties. The odds ratio is like 3X. It's very strong.β
βAfter we get through the next CPI print in early May, it will be 3.6 or higher. So we're not far from four. And the following month, I think what rolls off is either a zero or a point one, which means all you'd need is the kick in from inflation, from plastics, from diesel. I mean, this country, anything shipped to you is on a truck.β
Sarah made her first million by joining Airbnb as employee 3000
βShe got a job at Airbnb, and I think it was, you know, her numbers aside. The general math is you get a job, and they'll offer you maybe, like, a 40 or 50 k a year stock package in addition to your salary. So you get your salary, you get your health care, they got a kitchen where they're serving you lunch, they got oat milk in the fridge. So you you're not sacrificing anything. She didn't have to come up with the idea of Airbnb. She joined it. She wasn't the first employee grinding like crazy. She was employee 3,000. But that stock package, which over a four year period is, you know, you're granted about $200,000 worth of stock, five x ed. And she made a million bucks before either me or Sam.β
Southern Poverty Law Center faces wire fraud indictments
βThe SPLC allegedly did fund $270,000 to help plan Charlottesville. In addition to that, they secretly funneled more than $3 million to a bunch of violent racist extremist groups, including the Ku Klux Klan, the American Nazi Party, Aryan Nation, United Clans of America, and it goes on from there. So I think, don't forget about the $3 million bucks. So this group that was supposed to be fighting racism, in fact, was fomenting racism by paying these groups to basically organize protests that SPLC could then point to and say that America has a huge racism problem. And that's basically what happened after Charlottesville. They increased the amount of money that they were able to fundraise by $81 million.β
Southern Poverty Law Center faces wire fraud indictments
βThe SPLC allegedly did fund $270,000 to help plan Charlottesville. In addition to that, they secretly funneled more than $3 million to a bunch of violent racist extremist groups, including the Ku Klux Klan, the American Nazi Party, Aryan Nation, United Clans of America, and it goes on from there. So I think, don't forget about the $3 million bucks. So this group that was supposed to be fighting racism, in fact, was fomenting racism by paying these groups to basically organize protests that SPLC could then point to and say that America has a huge racism problem. And that's basically what happened after Charlottesville. They increased the amount of money that they were able to fundraise by $81 million.β
Varda manufactures drugs in space where gravity is an off switch
βVarda Space Industries helmed by none other than Delian, Asparuhov, and Wilbury. So they manufacture things in space. So they do not build the rockets. They partner with SpaceX to launch a capsule, and then inside that capsule, they effectively have created a manufacturing environment where gravity is an off switch. And so for certain things, imagine you're trying to grow a crystal or you're trying to grow a drug or the heart tissue or there's applications for, certain types of fiber.β
βTruMed adds a compliant pay with HSA, health savings account or FSA button to online checkouts by handling eligibility through embedded telehealth. So as long as health continues to be a trend you're sort of like the right kind of question. Yeah, and this is like buying like investing in an index fund for wellness, right? Like they're gonna be taking a cut of a huge amount of the volume going towards Wellness products in The US.β
SpaceX acquires AI coding startup Cursor for $60 billion
βThe acquisition was essentially negotiated, and the way that it's structured is so that the S1 doesn't go stale. So I think the way that it was announced has more to do with the fact that they don't want to slow down and have to rewrite parts of the S1, have to redo the disclosures, have to redo the risks. So I think what you're going to see is that this will get done. In fact, the deal is effectively done. But what's so smart is that where is SpaceX today? Let's call it a trillion. Where could it be? Just for the purpose of this argument, let's say two trillion. So when the deal gets done on a stock for stock basis, it's going to be, again, if it's $60 billion in tomorrow dollars, effectively Elon's gotten a 50% discount.β
John Ternus succeeds Tim Cook as Appleβs new CEO
βOn Tim Cook's retirement, he had an incredible run as CEO of Apple. He ran it very effectively for 15 years. The market cap of the company went up by over 10x. The revenue grew from roughly 100 billion a year to over 400 billion a year. He also improved the quality of revenue by moving the mix into services. People say that, well, they never did any innovation under Tim Cook. But I've seen people tweet lists of products that were released under him. And there were a lot of them. Now, it's true, nothing as big as the iPhone. But they did release a lot of products under Tim Cook. And then just finally, I mean, you look back over the last 15 years and there really weren't any public snafus or scandals or imbroglios with Apple.β
Southern Poverty Law Center faces wire fraud indictments
βThe SPLC allegedly did fund $270,000 to help plan Charlottesville. In addition to that, they secretly funneled more than $3 million to a bunch of violent racist extremist groups, including the Ku Klux Klan, the American Nazi Party, Aryan Nation, United Clans of America, and it goes on from there. So I think, don't forget about the $3 million bucks. So this group that was supposed to be fighting racism, in fact, was fomenting racism by paying these groups to basically organize protests that SPLC could then point to and say that America has a huge racism problem. And that's basically what happened after Charlottesville. They increased the amount of money that they were able to fundraise by $81 million.β
SpaceX acquires AI coding startup Cursor for $60 billion
βThe acquisition was essentially negotiated, and the way that it's structured is so that the S1 doesn't go stale. So I think the way that it was announced has more to do with the fact that they don't want to slow down and have to rewrite parts of the S1, have to redo the disclosures, have to redo the risks. So I think what you're going to see is that this will get done. In fact, the deal is effectively done. But what's so smart is that where is SpaceX today? Let's call it a trillion. Where could it be? Just for the purpose of this argument, let's say two trillion. So when the deal gets done on a stock for stock basis, it's going to be, again, if it's $60 billion in tomorrow dollars, effectively Elon's gotten a 50% discount.β
S&P five hundred growth remains historically overvalued
βI've said to people my view is that we'll look back ten years from now and the S&P 500 will probably be around the same level it is now. ... but right now the S&P 500 market cap is more than two times the size of the economy, a record going back all the way to the Great Depression. I'm not saying that's speculation. I'm saying that private sector has suffered dramatically.β
Herbicide Picloram linked to rising early-onset colon cancer
βThey then took that piclorum exposure, and then they looked at all the counties across the United States. They were able to gather data where there's enough data in California, Connecticut, Georgia, Iowa, New Mexico, Utah, Washington, and they were able to look at piclorum use estimates from the Pesticide National Synthesis Project and try and deduce in places where piclorum was highly used and not highly used, and once again, it elucidated signal, which is that when piclorum was used in the environment in the counties more frequently, there was a much higher frequency of colon cancer in those counties. The odds ratio is like 3X. It's very strong.β
Harvey charges law firms $190K like a junior associate
βHarvey is basically very simple. It's a AI lawyer. It's AI software for law firms. There are about 200,000,000 in revenue off of just, like, a thousand customers. I think, like, half of the, like, top 100 law firms in America are using them in some some capacity. Right now, Harvey's average contract value is, like, 190,000, which means they're basically getting paid like they're a lawyer who works at the firm.β
Trump supports AI data center power generation autonomy
βPresident Trump just wants the country to win and be successful. And he doesn't have these like doomer neuroses about it. That's not to say we don't support any regulation at all, but we should have specific solutions for specific problems as opposed to being cowering in fear over this and just trying to halt all progress. And I think a really good example of that was his idea around data centers where he said over a year ago, before data centers even became a hot political topic, that we should let our AI companies stand up their own power generation behind the meter. And that's a much better approach than the Bernie Sanders approach of just shutting everything down.β
John Ternus succeeds Tim Cook as Appleβs new CEO
βOn Tim Cook's retirement, he had an incredible run as CEO of Apple. He ran it very effectively for 15 years. The market cap of the company went up by over 10x. The revenue grew from roughly 100 billion a year to over 400 billion a year. He also improved the quality of revenue by moving the mix into services. People say that, well, they never did any innovation under Tim Cook. But I've seen people tweet lists of products that were released under him. And there were a lot of them. Now, it's true, nothing as big as the iPhone. But they did release a lot of products under Tim Cook. And then just finally, I mean, you look back over the last 15 years and there really weren't any public snafus or scandals or imbroglios with Apple.β
Suno could become a $50B company as music's front door
βSuno is basically a app or a website you go to, and you can make music even if you got no musical talent. SoundCloud has 40,000,000 music creators. So that's 40,000,000 people who around the world who actually have musical talent that are publishing on the platform. Suno's only at 2,000,000 users on their platform. And so the the the market for number of people who will make music that don't know how to make music is gonna be something like ten, twenty, possibly 50 x the number of actual musicians who create music. I think Suno becomes a $50,000,000,000 plus company.β
βWhat AI is is the ability for a company to fire people and still have the ability to make growth. So it becomes at the expense of labor. ... QE is gonna be for companies that exist, an ability for them to get rid of people in the form of AI. So if they can replace every person with a bot, that's great.β
Founder-led companies navigate AI disruption better than managers
βLook at Benioff, he's the founder of the company. He's run this thing since its founding decades ago. He is willing to bet it all, he's willing to make the change. It may be that the index you buy in this era of AI transformation is the index of founders, that the founders who are still running their businesses are going to be the ones who are most likely to see the future. They'll burn the boats. And all of the guys who have hired managers to run the business are going to do the things that Chamath is talking about, which is try and charge fees and try and maintain the old way of doing things as opposed to reinvent for the new future.β
SaaS debt bubbles are bursting for private equity firms
βThe underlying problem is that these businesses in the SaaS space where you're driven by net new sales every year, how many new customers are you signing up and then you're trying to manage retention and you're trying to increase sell-through and retain customers, they're just having a really hard time sourcing new customers and there's probably higher than model attrition. When you have a very kind of typically historically predictable business, where you can say, hey, I've got a net revenue retention of 118% or what have you, meaning I'm selling into my install base by 18% over what I'm making last year and then I'm signing up new customers, you can lever that business, right? You can borrow money against those cash flows because it becomes predictable. And what's happened in the last year in particular is agents have become so good and so fast and so cheap that many enterprises can simply spin up an alternative to a vertical SaaS solution.β
Founder-led companies navigate AI disruption better than managers
βLook at Benioff, he's the founder of the company. He's run this thing since its founding decades ago. He is willing to bet it all, he's willing to make the change. It may be that the index you buy in this era of AI transformation is the index of founders, that the founders who are still running their businesses are going to be the ones who are most likely to see the future. They'll burn the boats. And all of the guys who have hired managers to run the business are going to do the things that Chamath is talking about, which is try and charge fees and try and maintain the old way of doing things as opposed to reinvent for the new future.β
Founder-led companies navigate AI disruption better than managers
βLook at Benioff, he's the founder of the company. He's run this thing since its founding decades ago. He is willing to bet it all, he's willing to make the change. It may be that the index you buy in this era of AI transformation is the index of founders, that the founders who are still running their businesses are going to be the ones who are most likely to see the future. They'll burn the boats. And all of the guys who have hired managers to run the business are going to do the things that Chamath is talking about, which is try and charge fees and try and maintain the old way of doing things as opposed to reinvent for the new future.β
SaaS debt bubbles are bursting for private equity firms
βThe underlying problem is that these businesses in the SaaS space where you're driven by net new sales every year, how many new customers are you signing up and then you're trying to manage retention and you're trying to increase sell-through and retain customers, they're just having a really hard time sourcing new customers and there's probably higher than model attrition. When you have a very kind of typically historically predictable business, where you can say, hey, I've got a net revenue retention of 118% or what have you, meaning I'm selling into my install base by 18% over what I'm making last year and then I'm signing up new customers, you can lever that business, right? You can borrow money against those cash flows because it becomes predictable. And what's happened in the last year in particular is agents have become so good and so fast and so cheap that many enterprises can simply spin up an alternative to a vertical SaaS solution.β
ZURU's founder built China factories from scratch by accident
βZuruTech is a company that's based out of New Zealand. And they're the third biggest toy company in the world. It's actually hilarious. When they went to China to start their toy company, he went there because he heard, oh, all the manufacturing happens in China. But what that usually means is you go find a manufacturer. You tell them what you want to make and they make it. He went to China, didn't realize that, like a naive mistake, and built his own factory there, like, on the side of a river. Like, did it all from scratch because he didn't understand, like, oh, when people say they manufacture in China, it doesn't mean they go manufacture in China.β
John Ternus succeeds Tim Cook as Appleβs new CEO
βOn Tim Cook's retirement, he had an incredible run as CEO of Apple. He ran it very effectively for 15 years. The market cap of the company went up by over 10x. The revenue grew from roughly 100 billion a year to over 400 billion a year. He also improved the quality of revenue by moving the mix into services. People say that, well, they never did any innovation under Tim Cook. But I've seen people tweet lists of products that were released under him. And there were a lot of them. Now, it's true, nothing as big as the iPhone. But they did release a lot of products under Tim Cook. And then just finally, I mean, you look back over the last 15 years and there really weren't any public snafus or scandals or imbroglios with Apple.β
AI is rapidly destroying traditional software moats
βAnything that was created on code in the digital economy has been getting killed. Salesforce.com, Adobe, all of these things which had moats around their businesses were quickly unwound. ... I think we're in the stage, the, I think, the most important stage for Bitcoin where it no longer is considered a software, a piece of of code. It is considered something that is scarce.β
Semianalysis is becoming the Moody's of AI infrastructure
βSemi analysis looks like a substack. They break down semiconductor and AI infrastructure build outs. The comp is Moody's. So if you're familiar with Moody's, they do credit ratings and Moody's got started during the railroad build out because the railroad build out was so capitally capital intensive that there was a huge secondary market for like, okay, is this person that's gonna build this railroad from from Chicago to Atlanta, like, are they good for it? Do they have the money? And so, Moody's is now an $80,000,000,000 business.β