Compute eats jobs as Meta reallocates payroll to CapEx
“Wall Street is simple. If you give them growth, they'll leave you alone. If you don't give them growth, you better give them profitability. If you don't give them either, they're going to bust your chops. That's reallocating dollars from humans to compute. That's not what's going on at Block because they're not investing massively in CapEx, but that is 100% what's going on at Meta because the free cash flow, when you honestly account for the CapEx, is almost zero. And that depreciation is going to start hitting and they're going to be firing people because they need to give it to Jensen. And today, compute eats jobs.”
Anduril's $20B contract signals consolidation around defense primes
“Anduril Lans' $20 billion army contract. First of all, yes, it's obviously a vast contract. But as a reminder, they only have four or five customers. So you better get $20 billion from each of them if you want to be a big company. What it really told me is they succeeded. This isn't as much a new program. This is basically the army saying, look, we got 120 separate contracts with you. We get it. You're now effectively a prime supplier.”
Adobe faces real AI disruption risk Intuit doesn't
“I think the challenge for Adobe is, what kills you as a software business, if the work that you're automating gets done in a totally different way. Adobe is the classic creator tool. There is a whole new way to create. By definition, they're playing catch up. So more than most companies, they are under the gun to figure out how to meet their creators in a totally different way. So I think the disruption risk on those guys versus Intuit is a lot higher.”
Travis Kalanick's Uber would be a trillion-dollar company today
“I think Travis Uber would be a trillion dollar company today because it would be five years ahead of where it is today. When Travis was CEO, all he wanted to do was get into autonomy. He said from the beginning, our business is dead at its terminal state. No one was going to be driving cars around in Uber. And now they're years and years and years behind where they could have been. He was just too early, and there was toxicity to him, but putting that aside, he was just early for his time.”
The new hiring test: which AI tool did you deploy this month
“The answer six months old is I look for folks on my team, I look for what tools they play with. Okay, that was a great answer in like summer of 2025. I tried Lovable last week. Okay, the answer in 2026 is what commercial AI tool have you brought into your organization this month? That's the test. Anyone that is on the bleeding edge that you would want to hire. Now, there are so many great products in the market. Okay, there is no excuse in any role to have not brought one tool a month into your organization.”
NVIDIA's trillion-dollar forecast was already priced into the stock
“Super interesting kind of counterpoint on something. On the one hand, you are extraordinarily aggressive number, a trillion dollars in revenue. On the other hand, stock moved less than 1%. Why? Already priced in. And if you start parsing it out, I think what happened is it's as simple as this. If you look at the forecast, coming in at $215 million in revenue last fiscal year, up from $130 million, I think, the prior year, the forecast is mid $300 million next year.”
“You do not need to be technical to win with AI agents in Q2 of 26. You do not need to be even 1% technical. If in the last three to five years, you have successfully deployed a piece of enterprise software of any sort, you yourself, not some agency you hired, but if you have deployed it, you can deploy any agentic tool, and you can become the hero in your company.”
Small TAMs are no longer survivable bets at today's seed prices
“I have given up on an investment thesis I had for 10 years because I was a B2B founder, which is that a smallish TAM is okay with a great founder. I can't do any of those investments anymore. I can't invest in anything that is mid-size or smaller. I just can't. This is the Anduril problem. And this is also why I think a lot of funds are going to have terrible returns. Because a lot of early stage funds are going to swing so hard for the fences that they're going to invest in the number three or the number four and get just zeros after zeros.”
Replacing a founder is open-heart surgery with 50% mortality
“You should be very, very wary of ever swapping out a founder. It's like, I tell people, it's like open heart surgery and 50% of people die. It's a shitty business. Occasionally I've done it for a bunch of reasons, and it's hell on earth. Forget morality. Forget am I a good guy or a bad guy. It's just the most exhausting thing you do. It is easier to just lose money, right? So I hate doing it.”
