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“You should understand, like, cash, which people think is the safest investment, is the most assuredly bad investment in in most times, normally, because cash has a lower return, but it's particularly, a bad investment in a period of stagflation. So we're dealing with, kind of a stagflation kind of environment or an uncertain.”

“I'm coming here as we just shipped Gemma four. And, it's a really good open source model. The frontier to Gemma four is both huge and not so huge in terms of time. Like, of, Gemma four is based on Gemini three architecture. You know, it's a very weird thing. Right? You're talking about a set of ways which can fit on a USB stick.”

“We are, on the brink. Now the brink might be, I would say, particularly risky period, is between the, two next two elections. So between after the twenty six midterm election and the, twenty eight presidential election, is a a riskier period, and this is a very risky period. I think that, the monetary situation will be more threatening. The United States, basically, the US government spends 7,000,000,000,000. It takes in about 5,000,000,000,000. So it has it's 40% over spending.”

“Memory is definitely one of the most critical components now. There is no way that the leading memory companies are going to dramatically improve their capacity. So you have those constraints in the short term, but they they get more relaxed as you go out. By the way, I think it'll push a lot of innovations on. We will make these things 30 x more efficient.”

“Transformers was done in the context of a lot of, like, like, TPUs, transformers were all done to solve a specific product need to some extent. Right? Like, the team's thinking about how to make translation better. In the case of TPUs, how do you, pay speech rec works? We suddenly have to serve it to 2,000,000,000 people. We don't have enough chips for it.”

“Google is the one that's the the star of the show today because they're doing so much better than anybody else, not just in Google Cloud. They're also still seeing acceleration in advertising revenue. Their search business accelerated to 19%. That's a massive business, still accelerating. It's catching up to Meta. And Google also started talking about selling TPUs. This is something we started talking about a year ago as a wild idea, and now Google's actually doing it.”

“They're very insulated. Right? Oil is not an input for these companies. The their exposure is only the second order exposure. If the global economy was to slow down, then ad sales to Meta and Google would slow down, retail and Amazon would slow down, and some aspects of Microsoft business would slow down. But there's no direct impact on these companies. Their driver, again, by a mile is the growth in demand for AI compute, and that seems to have very little to do with the conflict, in The Middle East.”

“The power in The United States, for example, 1945 created a new monetary order, created a new world order, and that was a multilateral world order that was designed, almost to some ways replicate The US approach to, representative democracy. The creating of the United Nations multilateral organizations, including, can you imagine, the World Court or the World, Bank or the World Trade Organization or the World Health Organization. That's all over.”

“OpenAI is proving to be one of the most structurally critical companies in the market to the point where even small details about the business are eliminating hundreds of billions of dollars of market value. Yesterday, for example, the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI had missed its revenue target in 2025. Nvidia, for example, fell 4% on the news. Oracle fell 6%. Coreweave fell 7%, and SoftBank fell 12%. In fact, when you add up the market value that was erased, it comes out to nearly $400,000,000,000, all because of one report about one company that isn't even publicly traded.”

“But to give an example, like, search, you know, I was speaking with the teams. Right? Like, they now have for sub teams, like, latency budgets, like, in the milliseconds. You'll get 50% credit if so if you ship something which, you know, shaves off three milliseconds, you earn one point five milliseconds for your latency budget, and one point five milliseconds gets passed on to the user.”

“There are five big forces that create the orders where that we're talking about. There's a monetary order. There's a debt cycle. There is a political and social order within countries. There is an international geopolitical order. There is, acts of nature throughout history. Droughts, floods, and pandemics have, been more disruptive, killed more people than wars and have, can't be ignored as a factor. And number five, technology.”

“For example, as a as a an inclination, I would say, how much gold do you have in the portfolio? You shouldn't have too much and you shouldn't have too little, but it is an effective diversifier ifier to, other assets that you probably do have in a portfolio because, when you have a bad set of circumstances, gold tends to do well because of either the debt problem or the world war problems and so on and so forth. It's not only a long term currency, but today, it's the second largest reserve currency held by central banks.”

“I think your question earlier on, like, you know, I think you were asking in the context of way more robotics, like, companies. I do think companies which are that's one advantage startups are gonna have. More AI native teams. And and, you know, you can probably get at it through your interview processes, etcetera. Whereas for us, we would have, like, retraining, transformation etcetera. And I think that that's maybe an advantage, like, the younger companies are gonna have.”

“We are constantly trying to take these long term projects, which when you first announce them, slightly marginally looks ridiculous. Okay. You know, like, we're in the earliest stages of thinking about data centers in space. But to your earlier discussion around constraint inspires creativity. But if you take a twenty year outlook, right, where are you going to put most of these data centers? Really hard problems to solve.”

“But now it is really acutely constrained. Right? So you spend a lot more time. I at least spend a dedicated hour a week thinking about that question at a pretty granular level. So I will know by projects and by teams the compute units they are using. Right? And, you know, or or at least I have that information, and I'm looking at it and assessing it.”

“The way it works is that the credit system is like a circulatory system that brings nutrients, buying power, to different parts of the economy. And if that money is borrowed and, used to create productivity that produces income, then there's debt service. When, on the other hand, debt service debts and debt service rise relative to income, It's, you see the debt service is like plaque in the, circulatory system in that it squeezes out spending.”

“It's more likely has to do with the bottlenecks of building out data centers right now. There's so much competition for resources. We heard from Intel last week that they had to take some CPUs out of the trash in order to sit to meet demand. We can look at memory prices quadrupling within a year, and and we're seeing all these bottlenecks to mention turbines and and and power generation and advanced packaging. There's states that are that have this NIMBY approach of we don't want a data center here.”

“Hey. The overton window shifted. We have like, I felt like the company was built for that moment. The vertical thing, it's it's it's not an accident or something. It was a very intentful we were on the seventh version of TPUs. So to me, we were behind in terms of frontier LLM models, but we had all the capabilities internally, and we had to execute to meet the moment.”

“Waymo was a great example where I think we increased our investment two to three years ago when the rest of the world got pessimistic on it. When others, some of the people are backing off. For example, if Waymo had reached this point earlier, I think I would have invested the capital earlier. But I would have been glad to invest more capital in Waymo earlier, but we weren't at the level of maturity needed to do that.”