BUY CAPITULATION

“There's just seasons there's just seasons to this. And I just I almost think it's like biology, or, you know, the way the I live in the Northeast. We have seasons. It would be very odd to go through winter and then, you know, not have a spring. So I sort of view it as, like, this is just the way markets work, and there's there's data that we follow to track this. When someone says the cycle doesn't exist, you're kind of saying, like, there's this we're breaking some law of nature.”

“We looked at some of those kind of cycle to cycle metrics. And while we have, you know, the price did come into the fair value zone, we have not hit any of the sort of what you would expect to see from a deep value metric perspective. Realized price, 200 week moving average, those types of indicators have not hit what we typically see in a bear market.”

“I think it's really close. I've been trying to align my portfolio with my view on that, and I'm still of the mind that the probability still points towards that that Bitcoin hasn't actually hit its cycle low. It would be odd for me for me to for Bitcoin to hit that low as fast as it did as early in a cycle as it has, and also without being able to have any conviction on, like, a shift in the liquidity, you know, structure out there.”

“Bloomberg has done some work on this in terms of just like the impact that higher oil prices have on consumption in the economy. And about a $10 increase in the oil price equates to about a 30, basis point decline in in consumption. And so if you have a $100 oil or so, and it just kind of stays at that level for a long enough period of time, that's likely to pull about, you know, 1% of GDP out of the consumption economy.”

“MicroStrategy has been been in the market as a large buyer of Bitcoin. So this is something we did not see in the last, last bear market. And over, you know, dollars 7,600,000,000 of purchases so far in 2026, and this is mostly related to their ability to raise capital through this new, STRC product. If you're a bull, you're pointing at that as one of the main sort of catalysts to say, this is not a normal bear market bear market.”

“It's one of my favorite quotes from Charlie Munger is you always wanna understand the other the opposing view as good, if not better, as as their view. And so that's some of the work that we've been doing is really understand both sides of the equation and then sort of lay out what we think the probabilities are moving forward here.”

“We look at global liquidity indicators, things like this, and we think global liquidity has you know, topped and is is now in a process of rolling over. There tends to be about a six month lag in terms of how that impacts the traditional markets. There's a closer lag with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is much more sensitive to liquidity. So we've already seen this really impact Bitcoin, I believe.”

“Partly because it's not a unilateral decision from him. And I think what I'm starting to pay more attention to is just how what are these other countries starting to do as as we're we're starting to see, you know, how is NATO? We've seen Trump come out and tweet, if they give them weapons, we're going to, you know, start tariffing 50% on China. So that that's an escalation now of the trade war, which is still ongoing, you know, in the background here.”

“I'm sort of trying to hit the home run, and we've got a little bit more of, like, a a Warren Buffett approach. Like, I wanna buy capitulation. Like, we were buying in early February because the market was capitulating. And that's when I wanna be buying. I don't wanna be buying when I you know, everyone's starting to turn bullish.”