AVOID SOFTWARE

“I do think over time, AI will probably overtake that to some degree. It's pretty clear that AI is a transformational force within the software space. And probably the majority of names in the space today will experience major issues over the coming decade or so.”

“The markets were soft before the war. So all the war did was shuffle the pieces around a little bit. Now I'm not saying we're in for a market crash, but the markets are pretty much within a trading range, and they started to break down before the conflict even began.”

“The other thing is, within the app that I'm building, I have a bug reporting infrastructure, where someone sees a bug, they tap on a button, the bug sends the logs up and the bug files into a server, and then I have Claude go every 24 hours through all the bug reports, and it just fixes them all by itself without my having to intervene, and it puts all the fixes into side branches for me to review. Because in a sense, the agents can do perfect customer service. If your customer service was perfect, your customer service person would also be an incredible coder and would be indefatigable.”

“Rates are going higher and the dollar is starting to go lower. And that shows you that money is fleeing out of US markets, out of US assets and into foreign markets, which means higher interest rates, downward pressure on equities. The internals of the market are showing you what's happening.”

“You're going from in the thirty, forty, 60% range over the past few years of earnings growth down to eight next year. That usually creates some sort of earnings multiple compression. I would be very patient to pick this up because of that growth slowing, which is creating multiple compression, which means probably lower prices.”

“I do think over time, AI will probably overtake that to some degree. It's pretty clear that AI is a transformational force within the software space. And probably the majority of names in the space today will experience major issues over the coming decade or so.”

“Any cash you're gonna need in the first in the next probably two, three months, I'd probably wanna be in money market or something like an escrow. And then anything beyond the three months, then you could probably park in something like this—between three months and a year, year and a half, two years max.”

“I'm giving MNTN a thumbs up if it can gather a little more momentum and break above this hundred day moving average, which it's trading right at right now. If it does hit those earnings numbers, then it looks cheap. If you can break above a dollar—or sorry, $11.75, $12 in that range, then I think this has more upside.”

“Semis are also a part of technology, and semis have actually done reasonably well. You look at the semiconductors, it's back to all-time highs. Should it be? I don't think so, but it is. My views don't matter, but it's a pretty big part of technology showing divergence.”

“Software stocks are ugly. This has not helped them much at all. You know, if I look at the software sector, if I'm looking at the IGV, it's actually lower than before the war. If you look at the last three days, it's actually gone down a lot; it's just getting ugly in the software sector.”

“The real opportunities are in the companies that are applying AI effectively to make their businesses more efficient. And I think those that run on small margins already have the most room to grow because small changes in their cost structure can make a massive impact on their total profit.”

“I think Apple giving up an AI will go down as the biggest strategic mistake in the tech industry of this decade, and it's the beginning of the end of Apple's dominance. These companies can exist for a long time and make lots of money, like Microsoft is more valuable than it's ever been. But Microsoft Windows has kind of lost the battle, because they missed the mobile phone wave. They stuck to Windows OS, and they didn't upgrade to a touchscreen-based native OS designed for phones from the ground up.”

“The real opportunities are in the companies that are applying AI effectively to make their businesses more efficient. And I think those that run on small margins already have the most room to grow because small changes in their cost structure can make a massive impact on their total profit.”

“I'm giving MNTN a thumbs up if it can gather a little more momentum and break above this hundred day moving average, which it's trading right at right now. If it does hit those earnings numbers, then it looks cheap. If you can break above a dollar—or sorry, $11.75, $12 in that range, then I think this has more upside.”

“Did you see, like, the, what the acquired podcast guys are selling podcast ads for? Over my Twitter 4,800,000 for a pre roll. Four episodes, twenty 20 nine season. Four episodes for mid roll ads is $4,700,000. I think they're selling out because this they're selling into 2028 and 2029.”

“What I'm doing is I'm taking a step back and I'm pausing. I'm just going to watch and see what happens because I don't know what's going to happen. I'm not going to predict right now; it is way too early to predict.”

“Claude has really good visual presentation to the system called Artifacts. And Claude is very good at talking to me at the level that I'm at. Chat GPT is still the OG. It's sort of very good all around. Gemini is very good at search because it has the Google crawl underneath. And then Grok is the one I can count on to tell me the truth. It's like the least neutered, least nerfed. It's got access to X, so it's very good at news. And it's very good at technical problems.”

“So in the past, I thought, man, if I could just make software and sell it, I would be the king of the world. And that was true ten years ago. It is not necessarily true. The moat of just having a piece of software is not really big anymore. So it's really hard to sell those small tools unless you're in a very niche industry or there's some extra rules around it.”

“And it's very addictive because like in a video game, the way a video game is designed is that it keeps you hooked by giving you feedback and rewards for doing work. And it's always at the edge of your capability. So as you get better, the video game gets harder. It's not so hard that it's frustrating, but it's not so easy that it's boring. So you're always operating at the edge of your capability with the video game and getting these rewards. But those rewards are fake. And the video game is bounded, it's created by other humans. It's sort of a fake little world. And deep down, you kind of know that. So you're just figuring out the rules of the game. Except with Vibe Coding, it's unbounded, because now you've got a touring machine running underneath, you can build anything.”

“I think if you're, like, an alien and you come and look at humans or how they're using their computers and stuff, like blogging people differentiate blogging and social media, and I'm like, I think social media is blogging. Right? So let's say Twitter or x, whatever, Instagram. I have a piece of content, a picture, a text update. I post it on this network. People read it and comment on it. That's blogging. It's the same thing.”

“We're gonna pay you I'm gonna make a $10,000 a month, right, for six months. And then what's gonna happen is, unless you hit certain goals by that sixth month, the seventh month, you only make what percentage of that goal you hit. So if you hit 1010% of your goal number, we'll pay you 10% of that $10,000. I think a lot of sponsors, what happens, they pull the plug, and then it severs the tie. So then I feel like, oh, they don't wanna work with me? Whereas this way, I'm still making money, but it goes down, and there's a natural conclusion to the sponsorship that feels very natural and not like they yank the cord.”

“You're going from in the thirty, forty, 60% range over the past few years of earnings growth down to eight next year. That usually creates some sort of earnings multiple compression. I would be very patient to pick this up because of that growth slowing, which is creating multiple compression, which means probably lower prices.”

“So around December of 2025, the coding agents in AI hit an inflection point with the release of Claude Opus 4.5, and people started using it and were like, wow, this is an agent that stays on track, can build apps soup to nuts, can solve thorny problems, and really feels like having a junior programmer at your disposal who's fast, essentially free, and ready to please. That was an inflection point, and I was reading all the hype on Twitter, but this time it felt real. And I've tried the coding agents in the past with some mixed results, but this time I really got into it. And I haven't seriously coded in decades.”

“Daniel O'Shea, the guy who is the director of x engineering team, he told me this. Everything I'm building has to be defensible by, like, ChatGPT seven. Right? So it used to be with ChatGPT sorry. Before ChatGPT, OpenAI, you had to give it long prompts. Everyone thought everyone's gonna be prompt engineers. I was telling people from the beginning. I'm like, the next model that come out, you will not need this prompt. It just gets that good.”

“And by the way, I do this all the time. I'll stop the model and I'll say, no, that's a hack, that's a patch. Go fix it at an architectural level. And what's funny is the model will always say, oh, I'm sorry, you're right, that was a hack. Even if that wasn't a hack, the model will say, you're right, that was a hack. So the model is always trying to please you, and it doesn't know any better. In that sense, it's a little bit like a dog. It's better than you at catching that duck, if you're duck hunting with a dog. But it's still a dog. So if you point it at a bird, you know, that's not a duck, it might take that bird down instead.”

“Yeah, that's a watered down version of what I really wanted to say, which is that pure software is uninvestable. I would just full stop right there. If your whole advantage is like, hey, I'm building cool software that other people don't know how to build, I think that's uninvestable. And it's uninvestable for two reasons. One is they can just hack it together today, and the second is the coding agents are getting better so quickly that within a year or even less, they'll probably be building scalable software with good architecture.”

“I sent out a properly copy written email where I was just like, hey. I have too much inventory on this thing. Last call to get it. No pictures. No nothing. One link. And that was my first $10,000 day that I ever did. I never made that much money in one day before outside of, like, Halloween or something. And I was like, woah. Something's up with this.”

“So I actually built my own little app store, which is an app store just for me. I can ask it for an app, it can deliver that app to my app store, which is a web page, and eventually I made it into an app itself that lives on my iPhone. And then I can download those apps with one click, and I can get upgrades like you do with the app store. So if I want a new app, for example, that tracks my workouts, and I have this, I built a custom tracking app for just my workouts exactly the way I like it.”

“I said, do you send out cold emails to drum up? You know, he's just like, I'd rather go to one conference and just host a private dinner with four people rather than sending out 10,000 emails. Because of those four people, something will come up two of them, and two of them may not do direct business of with us, but they might, like, intro us later or later in a career change have some sort of, like, you know, synergy, whatever. More business comes from all of those than all of their outreach combined.”

“Rates are going higher and the dollar is starting to go lower. And that shows you that money is fleeing out of US markets, out of US assets and into foreign markets, which means higher interest rates, downward pressure on equities. The internals of the market are showing you what's happening.”

“The problems of the financial industry are a combination of the size of the problem and the transparency of the problem. If you have a small amount of problems that are non-transparent, it's a huge problem in the industry because people sell first and ask questions later.”

“I actually did. I rerecorded my whole course a long time ago because I used to use a lot of profanity and just weird examples, and I made a copywriting for business course. And I recorded the whole thing. I wore a suit and tie, and it flopped hard. And every business that is like, why don't you buy this version instead of the normal one? They're like, no. No. No. We want the stupid version because, like, that's what is is, like, fun.”

“If a typical retailer could halve their hidden food waste costs, it could grow their profit margins by more than 20%. That's without raising prices, without cutting staff. That's just straight to the bottom line. So it's about getting smarter about what they order in the first place, and that's what AI is helping with.”

“If a typical retailer could halve their hidden food waste costs, it could grow their profit margins by more than 20%. That's without raising prices, without cutting staff. That's just straight to the bottom line. So it's about getting smarter about what they order in the first place, and that's what AI is helping with.”

“Any cash you're gonna need in the first in the next probably two, three months, I'd probably wanna be in money market or something like an escrow. And then anything beyond the three months, then you could probably park in something like this—between three months and a year, year and a half, two years max.”