ANALYZE ENERGY SHOCKS

“And so yes, we've had this really big oil shock, and in addition, we might have some sort of shift in the global balance power, particularly if Aron is a tool keeper, it's a way with. What if it happens to be the case that to go from one place to another you need to pay in Chinese un instead of dollars.”

“The seventies oil shocks, you know, seventy three was a function of the om Kumbor War Israel, the Arab nations reactions to that the second oil shock in nineteen seventy nine was a function of the Iranian revolution. Same geographic region, different in the sense that the US and Israel are the instigators, and different in the fact that so far, at least the magnitude of the shock is not at all comparable.”

“We’re kind of in this weird world where the physical interruption is bigger the price reaction is smaller. That could change if you look at it in terms of physical interruption of the flow of oils... it’s noted, yeah, we’re similar, maybe even worse.”

“One of the things that connected dollar dominance was this idea of well, the US Navy is what police the highest and made global trade flow and stuff like that. If that is under question of whether the US actually can keep ships going and the way they were, how does that change the equation?”

“If you're paying for oil in un does that mean that you're going to save that money in yon dollar reserve assets or are you just going to put it like right back into treasuries? There are a lot of questions that we have about this current moment. Obviously everything's still highly uncertain.”