Asian countries face acute energy rationing and stress
βYou're certainly saying aious constraints on consumption where they don't really have a lot of refining capacity, and where there is, they just don't have large amounts of crude story. So places like the Philippines and Vietnam are already under some significant stress. A lot of it is also driven by the factors. It's kind of a question of whether you can get credit lines to be able to pay these prices.β
Middle East volatility makes natural gas look unattractive
βThen you have the issue of so you're kind of being your customers have been priced out of using gas for that reasonle line. Then you have this geopolitical risk attached to supply from the Middle East. There is no certainty that if there is some sort of toll on the straits of Horus that the Huthis might say, well, add like some of that too, please, and then we have another issue in the Red Sea.β
Storage proliferation is crushing peak Australian power prices
βWhat's happened with this proliferation of storage is that gas no longer reliably sets the price in those hours and sickly in Australia, where it's often somewhat oligobalistic market structure, having a lot of residential batteries tied together in a mesh network which then bids into the market is really crushing those peaky times of the day and that has a disproportionate impact on average daily prices.β
EV adoption is staggering as inventories drop sharply
βSimilarly, you're also starting to see a staggering acceleration in IV adoption. If you do calls to auto dealers around Asia and ask them how much time electric vehicles stay on the lots down to single days, and many of them are back or now, So if there probably wasn't, maybe.β
US energy independence story faces significant geopolitical risks
βAnd so I think while US supply is probably lower risk, depending on the actions of the US government. Of course, people are role looking at this market and thinking well, is this really what I want to build my powder it on? And the answer is probably so I got it.β
βSimilarly, you're also starting to see a staggering acceleration in IV adoption. If you do calls to auto dealers around Asia and ask them how much time electric vehicles stay on the lots down to single days, and many of them are back or now, So if there probably wasn't, maybe.β
βThe challenge right now for Asia is that most of their crede supply does come from the Middle East, or there are some countries which do have some domestic production Malaysia, China of course, but broadly speaking, Asia is a massive crude import, and principally from the Middle East because it's the most proximate supply and generalize the chapest shipping distances and costs.β
βThe challenge right now for Asia is that most of their crede supply does come from the Middle East, or there are some countries which do have some domestic production Malaysia, China of course, but broadly speaking, Asia is a massive crude import, and principally from the Middle East because it's the most proximate supply and generalize the chapest shipping distances and costs.β
Energy crises accelerate nuclear restarts in East Asia
βIn Japan, they have been undertaking a number of nuclear restarts. They were moving very tentatively as the public got behind nuclear and the politics became less challenging. That that is all apparently accelerating now, so Japan will push very hard on nuclear restarts, and more importantly, the public polling is really strong for it, so there's not a lot of political risk.β
βAnd so if you look at that vulnerability with oil where twenty plus percent of the market comes to the Middle East an LNG, which is about the same numbers. And then if you look at say a big network flow graph model of global coal market which I've done, the coal is not really dependent upon checkpoints.β
Strait of Hormuz closure chokes global energy flows
βif you take a look at what's going on in the strait of war moves, it still seems to be shut more or less and shout out to the Bloomberg function. You can hor Moves go. You can see the number of ships that are going through that particular choke point, and I have two as of today, which is basically not likely to today.β
Global gas turbine crunch threatens LNG power builds
βI think there's a lot of problem with it. But then mostly due to overall problems with gas. First of all, the gas turbines are used to build a power plant and nasua are the same ones you use to build a data center. And the cost of a turbine is now it's over five hundred dollars per killer what it was used to be about one thousand.β
βI think the thing that's confusing everyone is we keep seeing these headlines about like a billion barrels lost of world supply or twenty percent of the world's oil supply now choked out because of the Horror Moves situation. And yet if you look at the oil price, you know WTI Brent definitely up, but they're not up as much as you might think given the scale of disruption.β
Global diplomacy increasingly rewards displays of raw strength
βChina responds well to strength. The US now responds well to strength. So who does Trump not mess with China? Because they've restricted breaths and basically threatened put Detroit into cardiac arrest and strike their shoulders. And I think what Europe in particular is missing is that there are hands they could play that maybe are nonintuitive to them, but doesn't mean they wouldn't work.β
Nuclear restarts are accelerating in Japan and Korea
βIn Japan, they have been undertaking a number of nuclear restarts. They were moving very tentatively as the public got behind nuclear and the politics became less challenging. That that is all apparently accelerating now, so Japan will push very hard on nuclear restarts, and more importantly, the public polling is really strong for it, so there's not a lot of political risk.β
Battery storage is effectively crushing peak gas prices
βWhat's happened with this proliferation of storage is that gas no longer reliably sets the price in those hours and sickly in Australia, where it's often somewhat oligobalistic market structure, having a lot of residential batteries tied together in a mesh network which then bids into the market is really crushing those peaky times of the day and that has a disproportionate impact on average daily prices.β