Quantum Computing Got 20x Closer. It Threatens A Third of All Bitcoin

Key Takeaways

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  The quantum threat timeline has moved to 2029 - A new Google white paper, co-authored by Ethereum's Justin Drake and Stanford's Dan Boneh, suggests that quantum computers could break elliptic curve cryptography within just three years.

  “that deadline is now three years away, at least according to this Google paper. So that's 2029.”

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  New research lowers the qubit threshold by 50x - Oratomic has published research demonstrating that Shor’s algorithm can be executed with only 10,000 reconfigurable atomic qubits, a massive reduction from previous estimates of millions.

  “we see that we can actually do things with as few as 10,000 qubits using novel approaches to the error correction... it's actually a factor of 50, even relative to this recent result.”

• •

  Quantum vulnerability extends across the entire crypto ecosystem - The threat is not limited to Bitcoin’s public keys; it explicitly affects stablecoins, zero-knowledge proof systems, and Layer 2 data availability solutions.

  “In addition to Bitcoin... they talk about things like stable coins... even systems like zero-knowledge proof systems or data availability systems for layer 2s, all of those are covered and explicitly the vulnerabilities to a quantum computer are described.”

Episode Description

Google just set a deadline. Quantum computers could break Bitcoin's encryption by 2029. Are blockchains ready? Sponsored by ⁠Nexo⁠ Nexo is the premier digital wealth platform. Receive interest on your crypto, borrow against it without selling, and trade a range of assets. Now available in the U.S with 30 days of exclusive privileges.  Get started at http://nexo.com/unchained Google and Oratomic published quantum computing research on the same day, and together they redraw the timeline for when blockchains need to be post-quantum secure. Google's paper, co-authored by Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake and Stanford cryptographer Dan Boneh, estimates 2029 for breaking the elliptic curve cryptography that protects Bitcoin and Ethereum. Oratomic's findings are sharper: utility-scale quantum computers may need only 10,000 qubits, not the millions previously assumed, and the company already has 6,000 in the lab. With 6.7 million BTC in vulnerable addresses and a newly identified 9-minute attack window on unspent Bitcoin transactions, the question is no longer whether blockchains need to migrate. It's whether they can do it fast enough. Guests: ⁠Alex Pruden, Co-Founder & CEO, Project Eleven ⁠Dolev Bluvstein, CEO of Oratomic Links: Unchained: Q-Day Is Imminent. Can Bitcoin Survive the Quantum Threat? Solana Deploys Post-Quantum Signatures on Testnet Is Nic Carter Exaggerating Bitcoin's Quantum Risk? Yes, Says One Core Dev Research Papers: Google: Securing Elliptic Curve Cryptocurrencies Against Quantum Vulnerabilities Oratomic: Shor's Algorithm with as Few as 10,000 Reconfigurable Atomic Qubits (arXiv) Caltech: Useful Quantum Computers Could Be Built with as Few as 10,000 Qubits Companies & Tools: Project Eleven Project Eleven: Yellow Pages Oratomic BIP 360: Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR) Standards & Infrastructure: NIST Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards Cloudflare: State of the Post-Quantum Internet Google Quantum AI: Willow & Error Correction Algorand: Quantum-Resistant Falcon Signatures Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices