Bits + Bips: Why Josh Lim Is Optimistic on the Dynamics He's Seeing in Bitcoin

Key Takeaways

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  Bitcoin implied volatility dropped to sub-50 levels

  “If you look at, measures of longer dated volatility, we're trading in the sub 50 vol range, which historically has not happened, for for quite some time. And I think that is also a reflection of just a lack of conviction in holding Bitcoin, you know, up much further beyond here. Right? There is actually a lot of overriding happening in the market and not a lot of buyers coming in to pick up those options.”

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  Miners liquidate holdings for high-performance compute infrastructure

  “There is actually another transition happening that's important to call out, which is the transition of a lot of, previously run as companies previously run as Bitcoin miners transitioning to high performance compute. And, that has also come with a derisking of the balance sheet. Generally, some of these companies, most of these companies were holding some Bitcoin exposure on the balance sheet.”

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  Retail tax refunds fuel recent altcoin market strength

  “Going into April, there's a definite seasonality effect where a lot of retail capital becomes available. A lot of this comes in the form of tax refunds. You generally see some positive, inflows into risk assets. And I think you've seen some of the charts, of just how how much, the difference differences are between this year and previous years in terms of tax refunds.”

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  Quantum computing threats triggered brief Bitcoin selling

  “The one surprising thing, which is actually a very strong indicator in my view of the resiliency of Bitcoin and the amount of latent demand in Bitcoin is, post the quantum papers that came out. These came out sort of late March, from Google and Caltech, basically, describing an an order or two of magnitude improvement in the, amount of few minutes required to effectively crack the elliptic cryptography of Bitcoin.”

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  Derivatives market shows conviction in range-bound price

  “There is actually a lot of overriding happening in the market and not a lot of buyers coming in to pick up those options. I think that is also a reflection of just a lack of conviction in holding Bitcoin, you know, up much further beyond here. Right? There is actually a lot of overriding happening in the market and not a lot of buyers coming in to pick up those options.”

Episode Description

Bitcoin's spot-led rally looks healthy on the surface. But derivatives say conviction is thin. Josh Lim from FalconX on what the market structure is actually telling you right now. --- Thank you to our sponsors! MultiChain Advisors is an emerging technology growth firm that has helped create $50B+ in enterprise value for 80+ clients over the past 4 years. They're the partner to help navigate markets.  Build real traction today at multichainadv.com As Bitcoin's application layer, Citrea gives you access to the first trust-minimized BTC on a fully programmable platform and a native stablecoin for Bitcoin, ctUSD.  You can now participate in Bitcoin capital markets with lending, privacy, payments, Bitcoin yield, trading and predictions. You get expanded Bitcoin utility without sacrificing its security.  Citrea mainnet is live. Put your BTC to work at citrea.xyz/unchained.  --- Bitcoin is trading near $75,000, but the market structure around it tells a more complicated story. Implied volatility has collapsed to sub-50, funding rates are negative, and the options market is dominated by sellers, not buyers. Meanwhile, Bitcoin miners are liquidating holdings to fund the transition to high-performance compute, generating a persistent offer just as breakeven retail holders look for an exit.  FalconX Global Co-Head of Markets Josh Lim joins Steve Ehrlich to map exactly what is keeping Bitcoin range-bound, where the rotation into ETH and alts is actually coming from, and what signals in derivatives and on-chain data would indicate the market is ready to move.  They also get into whether the Clarity Act changes the long-term structure of the altcoin market, how Hyperliquid is being used for institutional RWA arbitrage, and what the quantum threat means not for cryptography, but for trading Bitcoin. Host: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Steven Ehrlich⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, Head of Research, SharpLink Guest: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Josh Lim — Global Co-Head of Markets, FalconX. Repeat guest; previously covered market structure and institutional crypto flows on Bits + Bips. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices