#739: Quarterly Monetary Base Update with Matthew Mežinskis

“Bitcoin is interesting because if you just look at this chart... it’s not a straight line. The best fitting curve is a power curve. And so what that means is, is that unlike this gold chart, which again can be volatile, it can be up, down, whatever, it is constant and it can be volatile... the rate of growth of Bitcoin actually slows over time.”

“The monetary base, we’re about at 26 trillion as of last quarter. Like I said, 80 percent of those top five currencies that you would think about probably the most is dollar, euro, yen, Yuan and Pound sterling. It’s bottoming, it’s turning around. Overall, if you want to think of another number, that I like to just throw out a lot... the global weighted compound annual growth rate of these currencies since 1970 is 12.5 percent.”

“What you see here is this sort of faster and faster treadmill up in a shorter and shorter amount of time. And so this is what really Bitcoin is up against... mathematically we’re going to run into very interesting tension. And what I think that tension is going to occur is probably somewhere around 2035, 2040.”

“Bitcoin at the moment does more than Fedwire. 373 million transactions for Bitcoin versus Fedwire, 219 million transactions. And it shows that there’s nothing technical stopping it from being Fedwire, just adoption and price. All that we have to have is price go up.”

“There’s going to be major tension where you could say in the stock market get 20-25% return, but Bitcoin is actually going to... clearly, it’s a superior asset, but in dollar terms, it’s actually growing slower. If they are successful in co-opting Bitcoin, then that means that Bitcoin turns exponential.”

“Right now, the internet is entirely throttled in Russia. You can't go on to any Western website. Everything is throttled for Russians. Telegram is completely shut off, 95%. VPNs, like 486 VPNs were just attacked and targeted... we are very close now to this sort of event horizon.”

“The bottom line is central bank balance sheets over the course of a year, on average since 1970 have grown at an exponential rate of 12.5 percent per year. So Bitcoin growing at 40 percent per year, though volatile, though we go through these bear markets, still well outperforms that as long as you hold it for four years.”