$1T Moved on Iran “Talks” — Did They Even Happen?

Key Takeaways

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  Geopolitical rhetoric is driving massive, unsubstantiated market swings - the $1 trillion rally based on unconfirmed 'talks' with Iran highlights a market environment that is hypersensitive to political signaling over hard data.

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  OpenAI is narrowing its scope to protect its core competitive moat - the company is shuttering peripheral projects and restructuring to focus exclusively on its fundamental LLM business and commercial scaling.

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  Emotional discipline is the only effective hedge against war-driven volatility - investors are encouraged to ignore the noise of high-frequency news cycles and stick to long-term frameworks during periods of extreme diplomatic uncertainty.

Episode Description

Ed Elson speaks with Justin Wolfers about the potential for deescalation in Iran and whether markets were right to rally on Trump’s word of negotiations. Then he discusses a slate of news out of OpenAI with Alex Heath following the company’s decision to refocus on its core business. Finally, Ed offers advice to investors amid the volatility of the war.  Justin Wolfers is a Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Michigan. Alex Heath is the author of the Sources newsletter and co-host of the Access podcast. Check out our latest Prof G Markets newsletter Follow Prof G Markets on Instagram Follow Ed on Instagram, X and Substack Follow Scott on Instagram Send us your questions or comments by emailing Markets@profgmedia.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices