Jesús Fernández-Villaverde on the Quandary of Global Demographic Decline
Key Takeaways
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Accelerating demographic decline Global fertility rates are falling significantly faster than previous models projected, driven by structural shifts in urbanization and female educational attainment.
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Housing as a demographic barrier High real estate costs in productive urban centers act as a direct tax on family formation, necessitating supply-side interventions to combat population stagnation.
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AI as a labor hedge Artificial Intelligence and the potential for AGI represent the primary technological hope for sustaining economic growth in the face of a shrinking global workforce.
Episode Description
Subscribe to the new Macro Musings YouTube Channel! Jesús Fernández-Villaverde is a professor of economics at the University of Pennsylvania. Jesús returns to the show to discuss his rise on X, how to frame global demographic decline, the three accelerants of demographic decline, the role of housing in family size, how AI will play a role in global demographics, what we know about AGI, the question of dollar dominance, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on February 20th, 2026 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Jesús Fernández-Villaverde on X: @JesusFerna7026 (https://x.com/JesusFerna7026) Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:07:22 - Demographics 00:39:28 - Artificial Intelligence 00:54:07 - Currency Dominance 01:03:20 - Outro