Anthropic's Revenue Surge vs OpenAI

“Something that shocked me, absolutely shocked me, is that Anthropic has just passed OpenAI in annualized revenue. The run rate is $30,000,000,000 at Anthropic. That's about $25,000,000,000 over at OpenAI. Anthropic was at roughly $9,000,000,000 in annualized revenue at the 2025. They hit $20,000,000,000 in early March and 30,000,000,000 in early April. Since December till now, we go from 9,000,000,000 to 30,000,000,000. This is the absolute greatest run ever.”

“Worldwide app releases in 2026 are up 60% year over year across both Apple's App Store and Google Play. And on iOS specifically, it's up 80%. I think vibe coding is working. Claude Code, Replit, all of these tools have gotten so good that people with ideas and no engineering background are shipping apps. Right now, I believe it truly is the gold rush, and the App Store is basically benefiting in a huge way.”

“They are discontinuing Sora. We've talked about this a ton, but the app officially closes on April 26. They peaked at around a million users, then it collapsed under 500,000 while they were burning somewhere between a million and $15,000,000 a day in compute depending on which report you believe. Then on basically the same day, the shutdown timeline locked in, OpenAI lost three of their major executives.”

“Cerebras has just filed to go public. They have a deal with OpenAI that's reportedly worth more than $10,000,000,000. Their CEO, Andrew Feldman, went on record saying, 'NVIDIA didn't want to lose the fast inference business at OpenAI, and we took that from them.' If even a slice of their inference workload is moving to Cerebras, I think that is the first real crack in NVIDIA's monopoly at the frontier.”

“AI agents went from about 12% success on real computer tasks a year ago to 66% now. This is agents actually navigating software. They're clicking through forms. They're pulling data. They're finishing multi step jobs in real systems. 66% is not good enough to let something completely loose unsupervised, but it's good enough for giving an agent a really narrow bounded job and checking its work, making sure that it's getting stuff done faster.”