Where is ETH in the cycle? | Michael Nadeau

Key Takeaways

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  L2 value leakage The Ethereum Layer 2-centric roadmap has successfully scaled the network but has temporarily weakened short-term value capture for the ETH asset by migrating high-margin transaction fees off the base layer.

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  Fair value signals Key on-chain indicators, including MVRV ratios and the 200-week moving average, suggest that Ethereum is currently trading within a 'fair value zone' rather than a cycle top.

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  Fundamental disconnect Despite robust growth in DEX volumes and stablecoin supply on the network, ETH price performance has lagged as the market reprices the asset's utility within a fragmented settlement ecosystem.

Episode Description

Ethereum underperformed this cycle, and investors are asking the big question: did ETH just skip a cycle, or is something deeper going on? Michael Nadeau joins Ryan to break down where Ethereum sits in the market cycle today, why several of his key indicators suggest ETH is entering a fair value zone, and whether the true macro bottom could still lie ahead. They also unpack why ETH struggled despite improving fundamentals. Mike explains how Ethereum’s L2 roadmap may have improved the network while weakening short-term value capture for the asset itself, and what signals he’s watching (MVRV, supply in profit, the 200-week moving average) as he looks for the next expansion phase. Michael Nadeau & The DeFi Report: https://x.com/JustDeauIt https://thedefireport.io/ --- 📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy --- BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🔮POLYMARKET | #1 PREDICTION MARKET https://bankless.cc/polymarket-podcast  🪐GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/galaxy-podcast  🏅BITGET TRADFI | TRADE GOLD WITH USDT https://bankless.cc/bitget 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | ONCHAIN INSIGHTS https://thedefireport.io/bankless 🌍 WORLD | FULLY ONCHAIN EXCHANGE https://bankless.cc/world --- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 3:50 The History of ETH Cycles 5:41 Analyzing Performance Trends 8:32 The Impact of L2 Roadmap 10:24 Roadmap Decisions & Market Perception 15:50 Valuation Metrics Explained 20:08 Disparities in Valuation Methods 23:22 Navigating Market Conditions 26:14 Nation-State Metaphor & Valuation 27:45 Revenue and Economic Impact 33:42 DEX Volumes & Their Implications 37:25 Stablecoin Supply on Ethereum 38:09 Cycle Metrics & Analysis 44:22 Fair Market Value Insights 50:40 Evaluating ETH for the Portfolio --- Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures