OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze

“I think the thing that's happening right now is, a complete misunderstanding of what's actually happening inside of the world of AI. And there is one very specific choke point that is constraining everything, which is access to the power that's necessary to drive these tokens. To the extent that OpenAI missed, I think what that is is an insight to not enough compute capacity today. And that problem is only getting worse. You've already seen that with anthropic as well, where they just found a way to economically induce Amazon to give them enough capacity so that you don't have to route through bedrock to get to the anthropic models. You're also seeing them do differentiated deals now with economic participation on top of what they already had from folks like Google to give them more capacity. What is my point? Everything in this market is power constrained. The reason that these folks may miss a number or a forecast have nothing to do with demand. It is entirely 100% due to the supply of the power necessary to generate the output token.”

“Two things. The reason that this is even possible is because humans are error prone. And when humans code, they create holes. And so humans exploiting humans is where we've been for a long time. Now we have computers exploiting humans because the computers go and seek out all these bugs that humans wrote. In the next phase, it'll be machines versus machines. And so I think the nature of cyber is gonna completely change. Probably in the next five or six years, there'll be so much reason to rewrite all of the software that runs the world. In one part, because you're gonna be asked to show more operating leverage and revenue growth, but in another part, because everything else that was handmade in the past is just fundamentally insecure. Either way, all roads will lead to all the operational software that runs the world will get rewritten. More and more of it will be written by machines. More and more of it will be impregnable as a result.”

“This paper showed that you could actually reduce the size of these networks by 90% and get the same accuracy out by pruning very large models down to smaller models, and then you can make a selection on which model to run for inference. And by doing this, you can actually reduce inference costs by 10 x. You can get 10 x the output per energy unit that goes into the data center with no loss of accuracy. And so it's a really interesting, call it, algorithmic technique that can be applied to the existing large models to actually make them much lower energy use. So if you think about it, you're firing up a very large model to answer a very simple question. You can actually prune away that model. Now this is probably gonna be the case in AI applications as it is in traditional Google search. There's a long tail of searches, but there's a few searches that account for a large percentage of search volume.”

“I think we're seeing a very important structural shift in the capital markets. I think the last twenty or thirty years, well, twenty years, it's been that the Mag seven just kind of ran away with it, that these big companies got bigger and bigger and it absorbed all of these investment dollars. And the biggest reason was that it had these very asset light business models, right? You just build some more software and it just has all this leverage and it all just kind of worked except maybe for Amazon because they needed physical infrastructure for warehouses and delivery and whatnot. But by and large, it was a very asset light investment cycle. Now, all of a sudden the pendulum is swinging violently in the other direction. And there's something that I think people misunderstand, which is as it moves back to these asset heavy infrastructure investments, The hyperscalers are signing checks that, I mean, I suspect their body can cash, but there's a world in which they can't. I'll give you an example.”

“Anyway, the larger point though is I'm speaking to the fact that I don't think there's gonna be this huge job loss associated with this productivity boom that we're gonna get. And in fact, I think what's actually happening now is that AI is becoming synonymous with the American economy. I mean, the fact that it's generating 75% of GDP, you have this CapEx explosion, this energy explosion that feeds it, And, again, just the beginning of the applications that are being unleashed by these new token factories, I think it's all a very, very positive thing. And all these doomers who are trying to throw a wet blanket on it or constantly scaring the daylights out of people, I mean, what do they want the American economy to do? Just to stop? I mean, they just don't want any progress? I mean, like, again, you know, when you talk about stopping AI or halting AI progress, what you're really doing is stopping the American economy now. You're basically saying you don't want economic growth. AI is now synonymous with the growth of the American economy. And if there's no economic growth, there's not gonna be money to pay for all the social programs, there's not gonna be money to pay down the national debt, there's not gonna be money to basically build up our national defense, all these things we wanna spend money on.”

“The 80% reduction of liver fat. A one c drops from 7.9 to 6% in forty weeks, which is amazing, by the way, if you're diabetic and your a one c drops that much in a couple of months. It's literally a life saving product. The average user in this phase three trial saw their weight decline from 214. They lost 37 pounds. That's compared to six pounds on placebo in forty weeks. And, you know, modest side effects, twenty percent people felt more nauseous than the people that were on the placebo. There's a lot of other separate studies that are being done now that are showing significant reductions in inflammatory signaling molecules. So systemic signaling of, like, hey. Cells are in distress triggers this kind of inflammatory process that can have a lot of other damage to your body. It can accelerate aging. And so one of the other conversations is that retentrutide might actually be kind of a deaging drug as well.”