Weekly roundup featuring Forward Guidance

“This was the first Fed meeting since 1992 with this many dissents. There was eight in support of no change and then four dissenting. And then even to complicate the matter further, three of them were dissents in terms of wanting to it was actually technically speaking, they said, this who supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate, but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.”

“So there's really no path to the Fed cutting in '26 without a crisis. You know, or according to when they make the date revamp the data to make it more accurate to to paint the picture they want. But I think that's the my biggest takeaway is just, you know, the the treasury has control monetary and fiscal policy.”

“Powell's really throughout his whole tenure, he's been pretty steady. And I think this is a testament to how the Fed messaging and forward guidance, it's like software they figured out where they can kinda just tweak everything and the market prices it in. And then once the Fed meeting actually happens, it's not there's it's, like, inconsequential. It's a it's like sell the news every single time now.”

“I think the next risk here is an export restriction control or ban of some sort. This is gasoline prices. They're up massively, over up over 33% to start the year, in The US here, and they're still rising. And this is, let gasoline prices go to the moon as textbook for how to lose an election. What could he do? He could put a export restriction. That would send Brent rocketing.”

“Are we in a late cycle boom where you see oil taking off like this? It's generally a sign that this is the end of the cycle, and oil and the rate of inflation change really breaks the back of everything. When I see this spread of Europe versus The US, I think to my brain, nineteen ninety eight Asian financial crisis where you left all the Asian economies, and you put your money right back into The US.”

“What can they do? Let it breach. And if that happens, the dollar strengthens and yields globally rise because if 160 goes, Japan yields rise, US yields rise. Okay. What happens if they defend it at 160? They weaken the yen and weaken the dollar. Nasdaq sell off. But weaker dollar is inflationary in The US in a time where we're already reaccelerating on Main Street and yields rise.”

“Bessent played a key role in breaking the pound. In 1992, Black Wednesday, he assisted George Soros in betting against the pound. They built a 10 billion dollar position against the pound. And now he's sitting in the exact opposite seat. Do you think about the irony of that where he's trying to control everything? He was 29 years old. He ran the London office. It identified the housing market economy were too weak to support high interest rates. And now he's sitting here in this exact same seat.”

“You guys know the dollar smile, which is basically the dollar strengthens in a really good time of The US economy and then a really bad time where it's a haven demand. What I actually think in a fiscal dominant world is more relevant today is the yield smile where if you look at the last few years, they're just managing to this low volatility, passive grind up of flows supporting the equity market, 10% a year. But if you go too hot, you get persistent inflation, persistent growth, and higher yields.”

“I am basically in the camp that a nineteen seventies second inflation wave is effectively baked in the cake. Like, that's pretty how far I am in that direction. And the OBB, the tax incentives, the reheating the economy, run it hot is absolutely here, and I just think it's not gonna be the run it hot everyone wants for the Nasdaq and other risk asset prices.”

“You need to own them. You have to own the hard assets because at some point, the pain's gonna be enough where they're gonna step in, and that's when your golds and commodities of the world just take their next leg higher.”