Ray Dalio

“There are five big forces that create the orders where that we're talking about. There's a monetary order. There's a debt cycle. There is a political and social order within countries. There is an international geopolitical order. There is, acts of nature throughout history. Droughts, floods, and pandemics have, been more disruptive, killed more people than wars and have, can't be ignored as a factor. And number five, technology.”

“The way it works is that the credit system is like a circulatory system that brings nutrients, buying power, to different parts of the economy. And if that money is borrowed and, used to create productivity that produces income, then there's debt service. When, on the other hand, debt service debts and debt service rise relative to income, It's, you see the debt service is like plaque in the, circulatory system in that it squeezes out spending.”

“The power in The United States, for example, 1945 created a new monetary order, created a new world order, and that was a multilateral world order that was designed, almost to some ways replicate The US approach to, representative democracy. The creating of the United Nations multilateral organizations, including, can you imagine, the World Court or the World, Bank or the World Trade Organization or the World Health Organization. That's all over.”

“We are, on the brink. Now the brink might be, I would say, particularly risky period, is between the, two next two elections. So between after the twenty six midterm election and the, twenty eight presidential election, is a a riskier period, and this is a very risky period. I think that, the monetary situation will be more threatening. The United States, basically, the US government spends 7,000,000,000,000. It takes in about 5,000,000,000,000. So it has it's 40% over spending.”

“For example, as a as a an inclination, I would say, how much gold do you have in the portfolio? You shouldn't have too much and you shouldn't have too little, but it is an effective diversifier ifier to, other assets that you probably do have in a portfolio because, when you have a bad set of circumstances, gold tends to do well because of either the debt problem or the world war problems and so on and so forth. It's not only a long term currency, but today, it's the second largest reserve currency held by central banks.”

“You should understand, like, cash, which people think is the safest investment, is the most assuredly bad investment in in most times, normally, because cash has a lower return, but it's particularly, a bad investment in a period of stagflation. So we're dealing with, kind of a stagflation kind of environment or an uncertain.”

“Google is the one that's the the star of the show today because they're doing so much better than anybody else, not just in Google Cloud. They're also still seeing acceleration in advertising revenue. Their search business accelerated to 19%. That's a massive business, still accelerating. It's catching up to Meta. And Google also started talking about selling TPUs. This is something we started talking about a year ago as a wild idea, and now Google's actually doing it.”

“They're very insulated. Right? Oil is not an input for these companies. The their exposure is only the second order exposure. If the global economy was to slow down, then ad sales to Meta and Google would slow down, retail and Amazon would slow down, and some aspects of Microsoft business would slow down. But there's no direct impact on these companies. Their driver, again, by a mile is the growth in demand for AI compute, and that seems to have very little to do with the conflict, in The Middle East.”

“It's more likely has to do with the bottlenecks of building out data centers right now. There's so much competition for resources. We heard from Intel last week that they had to take some CPUs out of the trash in order to sit to meet demand. We can look at memory prices quadrupling within a year, and and we're seeing all these bottlenecks to mention turbines and and and power generation and advanced packaging. There's states that are that have this NIMBY approach of we don't want a data center here.”

“OpenAI is proving to be one of the most structurally critical companies in the market to the point where even small details about the business are eliminating hundreds of billions of dollars of market value. Yesterday, for example, the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI had missed its revenue target in 2025. Nvidia, for example, fell 4% on the news. Oracle fell 6%. Coreweave fell 7%, and SoftBank fell 12%. In fact, when you add up the market value that was erased, it comes out to nearly $400,000,000,000, all because of one report about one company that isn't even publicly traded.”