Noelle

“Bitcoin is back above $78,000, as investors go risk on across the board, leading many to wonder if this is yet another bull trap, or if we're actually going to see a major breakout and a move into the 80s. Bitcoin jumps over $78,000, hits 11-week high amid Trump's Seek Fire extension. I mean, I don't even know how to talk about the war anymore because I get accused of having TDS and I feel like I'm losing my mind.”

“The derivatives market for Bitcoin is weak. It is just sending a lot of really miserable signals. You've got bases down. I haven't seen lows like this in ages. You've got skews suggesting a very heavy weighting towards puts. You've got the funding rate was negative yesterday. Today, I think it's tempted to be positive. In other words, the derivatives markets are saying that, hey, we're not frothy.”

“It starts to feel like there's spot accumulation. It's tentative. This is not the frothy risk asset narrative that we're accustomed to seeing in Bitcoin, and it could have to do with the hedge against crazy from those that actually take time to understand Bitcoin. For those that do so tend to buy the hedge against crazy narrative, I count myself in that particular bucket, which is why it tends to outperform when things are crazy.”

“Generally the bond market has the reputation of being the intelligent market. And so it's where the macro traders tend to focus. And that has been signaling squeeze coming up. I mean, yields for the 10-year are up at 4.23%, 4.3%. That's high when you consider that the Fed actually started the cutting cycle quite a while ago now. And it's also high considering yesterday we had the hearings on Capitol Hill.”

“The Bitcoin dominance index is this morning reached its highest point since I think November of last year. So what we're seeing is in part new money coming into the market, and Bitcoin is the obvious on ramp, it's tentative still. But I think we're also seeing some rotation out of other crypto assets into the safety of Bitcoin.”

“The Bitcoin move is curious and does have many of us, myself included, scratching our heads with a little bit of tentative optimism. It starts to feel like there's spot accumulation. It's tentative. This is not the frothy risk asset narrative that we're accustomed to seeing in Bitcoin, and it could have to do with the hedge against crazy from those that actually take time to understand Bitcoin. For those that do so tend to buy the hedge against crazy narrative, I count myself in that particular bucket, which is why it tends to outperform when things are crazy.”

“The bond market has generally been labeled the intelligent market because it just trades on macro data and big fiscal data. It doesn't get involved in AI narratives and things like that. And so generally the bond market has the reputation of being the intelligent market. And so it's where the macro traders tend to focus. And that has been signaling squeeze coming up. I mean, yields for the 10-year are up at 4.23%, 4.3%.”

“I think the mythos risk is very overlooked. Going back to what you were saying, I totally agree with you that this is going to hurt the DeFi story. It's not going to hurt the tokenization story at all, because to be honest, that's not really on DeFi. You do have some issuers testing public tokens on public blockchains, but most of it is going on permission blockchains.”

“I don't think it matters at all, to be honest. And as for him getting it, I've seen other investment portfolios similar very much as spray and pray. You don't necessarily get it. But listen, one of these will work out. So I'll just invest in, you know, the top 30 or whatever names happen to take my fancy. It's that's a risk portfolio, and that's often how they work.”

“The Bitcoin dominance index is this morning reached its highest point since I think November of last year. So what we're seeing is in part new money coming into the market, and Bitcoin is the obvious on ramp, it's tentative still. But I think we're also seeing some rotation out of other crypto assets into the safety of Bitcoin.”

“I think there's a lot of leverage in the market, but also there's foreign money coming in, perhaps not so much into the treasury market. Oh yeah, there is as well. Not on the private side, certainly because the rest of the world is kind of messed up as well. But there's a lot of leverage.”

“You do have some issuers testing public tokens on public blockchains, but most of it is going on permission blockchains. And that's, to be honest, where it's going to be. Not because I think it should be. I don't think it should be. I think public blockchains are a better marketplace. But because it's what institutions will be comfortable with, it's because it's what their lawyers will let them do and their compliance compartments will sign off on.”