βAnna Wong came out and pointed out, the the next FOMC meeting on Wednesday will be Powell's last. She did point out, Walsh is probably a shoo in. Basically, she didn't use that word, but somewhat done. Mister, senator Tillis has dropped his opposition.β
Warsh may eliminate Federal Reserve forward guidance
βHe has often talked about how he just doesn't think the Fed should be talking to the public so much. He has talked about getting rid of forward guidance. This may well be the last FOMC press conference we ever get the privilege of witnessing.β
βAnd then I point out the key theme is, again, drawing your attention to the bottom of this chart, we have I overlays gold volatility overlay with S and P 500 balance. It's just never been that wide. It's never stays that way. It almost almost leads the way.β
βI pay more attention to Brent because that represents oil on the move, oil actually on the ocean. And it's up at a 106 and hitting higher today. That's really an uncomfortable area for it to be in.β
European energy dependence creates severe economic risks
βUnfortunately, Europe doesn't have the political will that The United States has to actually fix some of these issues and so important. I don't think anything's gonna get fixed there. We're very much up against the rock and the hard place when it comes to China as well.β
βBut what moves the price always is the last trade and chances are the last trade is from someone who sees it as a risk asset. So it will continue to behave as one. And when the stock market's going down, you sell what you can. You raise cash and ask questions later.β
βThe iBit ETF has options. And then this is a very, very big deal, not just for investors who wanna be able to hedge their positions, their long positions. I bet it's just much easier and cheaper to do that in options.β
Tether might eventually flip Bitcoin in market cap
βI expect this year, I fully expect, Tether to be the number two and eventually number one. That's the key thing about them. Understand the technology. It's the ability to transmit, transport, and transact dollars via stablecoins overall, and why take the extra risk in Bitcoin when you, you know, don't have to anymore?β
βWarsh is probably a shoo-in, basically, she didn't use that word, but somewhat done. Senator Tillis has dropped his opposition. Will Powell stay on? She doesn't think so. Right off to the sunset, his news conference, he thinks, will be somewhat nostalgic and point out inflation expectations are firmly anchored, yet we have strong economic growth and might even mention things about independence of the Fed, so that's gonna be important.β
The Strait of Hormuz chokehold impacts global energy
βWe know that there's still a chokehold on the Straits of Hormuz, but yet Bitcoin remains resilient alongside many other markets. I don't have the brainpower to unpack this, but luckily I have amazing guests that do.β
Affordability issues push high earners to paycheck living
βIt's almost every week, the number of people getting sucked in to living paycheck to paycheck and feeling stretched with what they thought was a comfortable lifestyle a year or two keeps increasing. I think that's the pressure. It's people, I think when you were scrolling through earlier, you saw some headline, people making 500K or living paycheck to paycheck.β
βI would not be surprised to see an operation twist type thing and a little bit even more coordination with Treasury Department to see where it goes. I, for one, I'd be happy if we had less kind of information from the Fed. I feel like forward guidance is one of those things. The first few times you do it, it has a real strong impact.β
IBIT options are driving institutional Bitcoin demand
βiBit ETF has options. And this is a very, very big deal, not just for investors who want to be able to hedge their positions, their long positions on iBit. It's just much easier and cheaper to do that in options. You can get much more sophisticated strategies with the options than you can on just plain old futures. It's also market makers.β
Europe faces irrelevance due to energy and regulation
βUnfortunately, Europe doesn't have the political will that the United States has to actually fix some of these issues and so on. I don't think anything is going to get fixed there. We're very much up against the rock and the hard place when it comes to China as well. Half of the EU members want to make friends with China and become closer, or the other half see China as the baddies that want to flood our market with cheap goods.β
Stablecoins offer higher utility than speculative crypto assets
βIf we get a little bit of a drawdown in the stock market, I expect this year, I hopefully expect Tether to be the number two and eventually number one. That's the key thing about them, understand the technology. It's the ability to transmit, transmore and transact dollars via stable coins overall, and why take the extra risk in Bitcoin when you don't have to anymore?β