John Cochrane

“Well, it's a big deal because, yeah, we gotta go back to 2022, first of all. Where this really comes from is when OPEC announced in 2022 as oil prices came down off the top, OPEC decided they wanted $100 per barrel oil. They wanted that forever into the future, and they thought, well, okay. We'll cut some supply back and get oil prices to firm up, and then, you know, the global economy will pick up and will be a $100 per barrel oil forever. Well, they made a huge mistake there because the economy never really came back, and oil prices were soft the entire time.”

“Something you just said is really important that you're not negotiating with The United Kingdom. One of the reasons why is that for the Iranians, at least the Iranian regime or what's left of it, this is a war of survival. There is no tomorrow. If they lose this, I mean, it's very likely they're gonna be hauled up into the street.”

“It's called the section twelve fifty a, National Defense Authorization Act, fiscal for 2024 law designed to prevent a president from unilaterally withdrawn from NATO. And by the way, you know who signed on it? Kane and Rubio, which is very interesting. Two thirds on the bottom of two to withdraw from NATO, one of the following must happen. Two thirds of senate has to prove it or congress passes a law authorizing withdrawal.”

“Yeah. Well, one, like, side recommendation I have is, like, don't worry about, like, squirreling money away for retirement in, like, ten or twenty years. It won't matter. Either we're not gonna be here or it just, like, you won't need to save for retirement. If any of the things that we've said are true, saving for retirement will be irrelevant.”

“Well, I'm hearing my colleague, Josh Rao at Hoover who has done some of the best analysis of this, which is, yep, the billionaires are on the way out. Don't slam the door behind you. And in fact, the state is gonna lose money, not just on this tax. When the billionaires leave, you don't get to tax their future income going forward. So California is so weighted towards a high income on their taxes. They're gonna actually lose money on it.”

“Here's the problem in getting them to pay. The guy who picks up the bill chooses the restaurant. Back when we picked up the bill, we chose the restaurant. We picked the wine. If they're gonna pick up the bill, they have rights to do what they want with the money, and you might not like it anymore.”

“And this is the way third world countries work. That when you lose an election, the entire you go to jail, you're lucky if you keep your life, you lose your business, your family loses your business, your supporters lose your business. And what do you do? You make darn sure not to lose an election. The key to democracy is the ability to lose an election and just lick your wounds, go back, and try again the next time.”

“Trump is not a free market guy, and everybody has understood this since about 1955, and farmers vote. And the senate is very, very biased towards rural areas. Let's say, why do we have corn ethanol? And we do more corn ethanol now, which is this is anybody wants industrial policy, my answer is corn ethanol. Complete waste, doesn't save the climate, but boy oh boy, they vote in Iowa.”

“Look, first of all, the UAE goes to Washington for the IMF meetings a couple of weeks ago. A couple of days later, we hear, UAE asked for a dollar swap line with the Treasury Department. Then suddenly, a couple of days after that, UAE says, hey, guess what? We're out of OPEC. So there has to be financial guarantees. They had to have top level discussions with the Trump administration saying, look, this Iran conflict, we're on your side here because we're getting hit more than Israel.”

“It's called the Section 1250A, National Defense Authorization Act Fiscal for 2024 Law, designed to prevent a president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO. And by the way, you know who signed on it? Kane and Rubio, which is very interesting. Two-thirds, on the bottom, to withdraw from NATO. One of the following must happen. Two-thirds of Senate has to prove it or Congress passes a law authorizing withdrawal.”

“There's something you just said is really important, that you're not negotiating with the United Kingdom. One of the reasons why is that for the Iranians, at least the Iranian regime or what's left of it, this is a war of survival. There is no tomorrow. If they lose this, I mean, it's very likely they're going to be hauled up into the streets.”

“She came to America at 19, met my incredible father. We loved him so much. We all loved him. We loved her. We loved him, Fred. And they were married for 63 years. And excuse me, if you don't mind. That's a record we won't be able to match, darling. Just not going to work out that way. We'll do well, but we're not going to do that well.”

“Franklin Roosevelt started giving money to farmers. We've been doing it ever since. The fraction of the US who works on farms is way under 2% right now, most of which are illegal immigrants. So this is a tiny slice of the US economy. We would get cheaper food and more productive and cheaper food. So you end up subsidizing all the unproductive farms. Because they can't make enough food to make it profitable to sell it to the market.”

“Well, one side recommendation I have is, don't worry about squirreling money away for retirement in 10 or 20 years, it won't matter. You won't need to save for retirement. If any of the things that we've said are true, saving for retirement will be irrelevant. Yes, that was one of the more economically incoherent things I've ever heard. These guys are brilliant about starting companies and AI, but not about adding together.”

“He had a great debate with Emmanuel Saez, an economist who was one of the big brains behind this thing. Saez was quite honest. It wasn't about raising revenue. It's about getting rid of billionaires. He thinks that if you can get rid of the billionaires' wealth, you'll lose their political power. That's an interesting theory.”