Trump’s Risky Strategy to Blockade Iran’s Blockade
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Blockade aims to strangle Iranian oil revenue
“It's not only the overall Iranian economy that's dependent on this revenue, it's particularly the government and within that, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps which gets almost all of its revenue and thus its ability to pursue the war from oil exports.”
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Military presence seeks control over the Strait
“The US Navy needed to do was reverse the dynamic, make sure that it wasn't the Iranians who were controlling traffic through the Strait, but that it was the US Navy that was. And that sounds like a fairly straightforward process given the size of the US Navy. But in fact, it turns out, it's looking like it will be pretty complicated to execute.”
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Escalation risks include attacks on US ships
“One major risk, of course, is that the IRGC and Iran itself lashes out. They have threatened to attack these US Navy ships, and so you could have a major escalation of the fighting again based over the ships coming into the strait or even standing back outside.”
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China trade relations face significant blockade disruption
“90 percent of the oil that Iran ships out is headed to China. Much of it is on Chinese crewed, Chinese flagged ships. The president's supposed to go to Beijing in about four weeks, and what he was hoping was going to be this meeting all about a new detente between China and the United States.”
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Infrastructure damage threatens long-term energy production
“I'd say a third big category of risk is that Iran responds by restarting attacks on energy infrastructure throughout the Persian Gulf. That is one that carries really long-term risks for the global energy system and the global economy, because as you do more damage to the region's infrastructure, prevent refineries from operating, you risk taking energy offline for a long period of time.”