CPI is a lagging and fundamentally flawed indicator
βThe consumer price index is a lagging indicator that fails to capture the true health of the economy because it only looks at a narrow, manipulated basket of goods. Everyone is looking at the CPI and screaming inflation, but they are missing the underlying breakdown in the credit markets that signals the exact opposite trend is taking hold.β
Global credit contraction creates massive deflationary pressure
βWhat people misunderstand is that we are in a period of massive credit contraction where the destruction of debt and credit is far outpacing the ability of central banks to inject liquidity. When the eurodollar system stalls, the global economy faces a liquidity trap that is inherently deflationary regardless of what the headline numbers suggest.β
βIt is a myth that the Federal Reserve prints money; in reality, commercial banks create the vast majority of our money supply through lending. When these banks lose the appetite for risk and stop expanding their balance sheets, the money supply effectively shrinks, creating a drag on growth that no amount of bank reserves can fix.β
Demographics drive structural economic stagnation and deflation
βDemographics are destiny in economics, and the aging populations in the West, Japan, and China are a massive deflationary force. You simply cannot have high inflation and high growth when the working-age population is shrinking and the velocity of money is trending toward zero as people move into retirement.β
Central banks react to markets rather than leading
βCentral banks are not the all-powerful actors they are portrayed to be; they are essentially following the bond market and reacting to data that is already months old. By the time the Fed realizes they need to pivot or lower interest rates, the credit markets have usually already broken, making their response too little and too late.β
βAs the legacy credit-based system continues to struggle under the weight of massive debt and demographic decline, Bitcoin stands out as a neutral, global reserve. It is the only asset that allows for the preservation of value without being someone else's liability, making it essential for the transition to a more stable financial order.β