“I forget which country was. They were, like, you know, they're doing that classic thing of only drive to work if your license plate ends in an odd number on this day. Whatever, very nineteen seventies. Yeah, and we're seeing a lot of these types of headlines, some in Korea, some Thailand, et cetera.”
“There was some there were some headlines about how maybe even in the good case, they would let through ten to fifteen, which is still sort of nothing compared to normal ship traffic, so like nothing's back to normal.”
“Asia is very heavily exposed right now and more acutely thinking about what the impacts might be, how they might want to preempt them than the United States. Asia is a massive crude importer, and principally from the Middle East because it's the most proximate supply and generally has the cheapest shipping distances.”
“The challenge right now for Asia is that most of their crede supply does come from the Middle East, or there are some countries which do have some domestic production Malaysia, China of course, but broadly speaking, Asia is a massive crude import, and principally from the Middle East because it's the most proximate supply and generalize the chapest shipping distances and costs.”
“The war in Iran has caused the price of all kinds of commodities to surge, and that has a negative economic impact almost everywhere. But the squeeze is really being felt hard in East Asia, which is the ultimate destination for a lot of oil and gas that come out of the Gulf.”
“The war will accelerate the region's appetite to restart nuclear power plants, ultimately lessening its dependence on imported natural gas. Though the acute pain may pass, this episode may already be reshaping the long-term energy trajectory of the region.”
“If you take a look at what's going on in the strait of war moves, it still seems to be shut more or less. You can see the number of ships that are going through that particular choke point, and I have two as of today, which is basically nothing compared to normal ship traffic.”
“Per his channel checks, the region is already seeing a jump in demand for electric vehicles, with BYD dealers holding less and less inventory on hand. The extreme rationing and high prices are forcing a faster transition than previously anticipated.”
“I think the thing that's confusing everyone is we keep seeing these headlines about like a billion barrels lost of world supply or twenty percent of the world's oil supply now choked out because of the Horror Moves situation. And yet if you look at the oil price, you know WTI Brent definitely up, but they're not up as much as you might think given the scale of disruption.”
“One thing about our current market moment is we are getting like a crash course in real time about the flow of energy throughout the world. And as we will see in this conversation, like it is still very much geographically constrained East versus West, and so as you say, the big question is whether or not the east kind of I don't know, scrambles even harder to adapt to this.”
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